Building risk analysis system with risk decay

ABSTRACT

A building management system includes one or more computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to receive a threat, the threat comprising a particular threat type, the threat indicating an incident affecting a risk value associated with an asset. The instructions cause the one or more processors to determine, based on the threat and the asset, the risk value at a first point in time, select a decay model based on the particular threat type, and update the risk value at a plurality of points in time after the first point in time with the decay model causing the risk value to decay.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED PATENT APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of and priority to U.S. ProvisionalPatent Application No 62/564,247 filed Sep. 27, 2017, Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/627,596 filed Feb. 7, 2018, U.S. Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/627,615 filed Feb. 7, 2018, U.S. Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/627,627 filed Feb. 7, 2018, U.S. Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/627,606 filed Feb. 7, 2018, Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/627,698 filed Feb. 7, 2018, U.S. Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/628,647 tiled Feb. 9, 2018, U.S. Provisional PatentApplication No. 62/628,711 filed Feb. 9, 2018, and U.S. ProvisionalPatent Application No. 621637,954 filed Mar. 2, 2018. The entirety ofeach of these patent applications is incorporated by reference herein.

BACKGROUND

The present disclosure relates generally to building security systemsfor assets (e.g., buildings, building sites, building spaces, people,cars, equipment, etc.). The present disclosure relates more particularlyto security platforms for handling alarms for the building, riskanalytics, and risk mitigation.

Many security platforms provide threat information to operators andanalysts monitoring all the activities and data generated from buildingsensors, security cameras, access control systems, etc. The data may be,or may be indicative of alarms, i.e., events occurring in the buildingthat indicate an intrusion, a fire, or any other dangerous event.Furthermore, the data may be external, e.g., data from data sourcesreporting potential threats e.g., violent crimes, weather and naturaldisaster reports, traffic incidents, robbery, protests, etc. However,due to the volume of data for the activities and the dynamic nature ofthe activities, a large amount of resources, are required by thesecurity platform to process the data. Since there may be many alarms,not only does the security platform require a large amount of resources,a high number of security operators and/or analysts are required toreview and/or monitor the various different alarms or systems of thebuilding.

SUMMARY Natural Language Processing (NLP) Engine

One implementation of the present disclosure is a building managementsystem including one or more computer-readable storage media havinginstructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or moreprocessors, cause the one or more processors to receive threat eventsfrom one or more data sources indicating a potential threat to at leastone of buildings, building equipment, people, or spaces within abuilding, each threat event including a description. The instructionscause the one or more processors, for each threat event, to determinewhether the description for the threat event corresponds to one ofmultiple predefined threat categories, in response to determining thedescription corresponds to one of the predefined threat categories,generate a standardized threat object for the threat event using thecorresponding predefined threat category, and in response to determiningthe description does not correspond to one of the predefined threatcategories. The instructions cause the one or more processors togenerate the standardized threat object by processing the descriptionusing a natural language processing engine to identify one of thepredefined threat categories to he assigned to the threat event andgenerating a standardized threat object for the threat event using thepredefined threat category identified by the natural language processingengine.

In some embodiments, determining whether the description for the threatevent corresponds to one of the predefined threat categories includesdetermining whether a stored data identifies a direct mapping of atleast a portion of the description to one of the predefined threatcategories.

In some embodiments, the threat events are received from a multiple datasources having multiple different data formats.

To some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a classifier for the natural language processing engineusing historical threat data including a multiple historical threatevents each having a description, in some embodiments, the instructionscause the one or more processors to process the description using theclassifier of the natural language processing engine.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto pre-process the historical threat data, pre-processing the historicalthreat data including at least one of filtering historical threat eventsfrom the set having a description longer than a first threshold lengthor filtering historical threat events from the set having a descriptionshorter than a second threshold length.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate vector representations from the historical threat datasubsequent to applying the labels.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto separate the historical threat data into a training data set and atest data set. In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one ormore processors to train the classifier using the training data set andto test an accuracy of the classifier using the test dataset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto apply labels to the pre-processed historical threat data from among aset of predetermined labels, the set of predetermined labels associatedwith the predefined threat categories.

in some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto apply the labels based on, input from one or more users, the one ormore processors configured to generate a user interface via which theinput is received, where, for each historical threat event, theinstructions cause the one or more processors to generate a suggestedsubset of the set of predetermined labels from which the one or moreusers can select the label to be applies to the historical threat event.In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate the suggested subset of predetermined labels by performing asimilarity analysis between the description of the historical threatevent and the labels, of the set of predetermined labels and includingone or more predetermined labels from the set of predetermined labelshaving a highest similarity with the description of the historicalthreat event in the suggested subset.

In some embodiments, performing the similarity analysis includesperforming a vector space similarity comparison between the descriptionof the historical threat event and the set of predetermined labels andgenerating a similarity score for each predetermined label of the set ofpredetermined labels. In some embodiments, the instructions cause theone or more processors to select a one or more of the predeterminedlabels having the highest similarity scores for inclusion in thesuggested subset.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for a riskanalysis. The method includes receiving threat events from one or moredata sources indicating a potential threat to at least one of buildings,building equipment, people, or spaces within a building, each threatevent including a description. For each threat event, the methodincludes determining whether the description for the threat eventcorresponds to one of multiple predefined threat categories, in responseto determining the description corresponds to one of the predefinedthreat categories, generating a standardized threat object for thethreat event using the corresponding predefined threat category, and inresponse to determining the description does not correspond to one ofthe predefined threat categories processing the description using anatural language processing engine to identify one of the predefinedthreat categories to be assigned to the threat event and generating astandardized threat object for the threat event using the predefinedthreat category identified by the natural language processing engine.

In some embodiments, determining whether the description for the threatevent corresponds to one of the predefined threat categories includesdetermining whether a stored data identifies a direct mapping of atleast a portion of the description to one of the predefined threatcategories.

In some embodiments, the threat events are received from multiple datasources having multiple different data formats.

In some embodiments, the method includes generating a classifier for thenatural language processing engine using historical threat dataincluding multiple historical threat events each having a description.In some embodiments, processing the description includes using theclassifier of the natural language processing engine.

In some embodiments, the method includes pre-processing the historicalthreat data, wherein pre-processing the historical threat data includesfiltering historical threat events from the set having a descriptionlonger than a first threshold length or filtering, historical threatevents from the set having a description shorter than a second thresholdlength.

In some embodiments, the method further includes generating vectorrepresentations from the historical threat data subsequent:to applyingthe labels.

In some embodiments, the method further includes separating thehistorical threat data into a training data set and a test data set insome embodiments, the method further includes training the classifierusing the training data set and to test an accuracy of the classifierusing the test data set.

In some embodiments, the method further includes applying labels to thepre-processed historical threat data from among a set of predeterminedlabels, the set of predetermined labels associated with the predefinedthreat categories.

In some embodiments, applying the labels is based on input from one ormore users, wherein the method further includes generating a userinterface via which the input is received, wherein, for each historicalthreat event, the method further includes generating a suggested subsetof the set of predetermined labels from which the one or more users canselect the label to be applies to the historical threat event, whereingenerating the suggested subset of predetermined labels includesperforming a similarity analysis between the description of thehistorical threat event and the labels of the set of predeterminedlabels and including one or more predetermined labels from the set ofpredetermined labels having a highest similarity with the description ofthe historical threat event in the suggested subset.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a building riskanalytics system including one or more computer-readable storage mediacommunicably coupled to one or more processors and configured to storeinstructions. The system further includes the one or more processorsconfigured to execute the instructions to receive threat events from oneor more data sources indicating a potential threat to at least one ofbuildings, building, equipment, people, or spaces within a building,each threat event including a description, wherein the threat events arereceived from multiple data sources having multiple different dataformats. The one or more processors are configured to execute theinstructions to, for each threat event, determine whether thedescription for the threat event corresponds to one of multiplepredefined threat categories, in response to determining the descriptioncorresponds to one of the predefined threat categories, generate astandardized threat object for the threat event using the correspondingpredefined threat category, and in response to determining thedescription does not correspond to one of the predefined threatcategories process the description using a natural language processingengine to identify one of the predefined threat categories to beassigned to the threat event and generate a standardized threat objectfor the threat event using the predefined threat category identified bythe natural language processing engine.

Expiry Time Prediction

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system The system includes one or more computer-readablestorage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed byone or more processors, cause the one or more processors to receivethreat events indicating a potential threat to at least one ofbuildings, building equipment, people, or spaces within a building, eachthreat event including a threat category from among multiple threatcategories. The instructions cause the one or more processors, for eachthreat event, to assign, using an expiry time prediction model, anexpiry time to the threat event based at least in part on the threatcategory of the threat event, the expiry time prediction model trainedusing a set of historical threat events. Each historical threat event inthe set of historical threat events includes at least one of the threatcategories and at least one of an expiry time for the historical threatevent or a start time and an end time usable by the one or moreprocessors to determine the expiry time for the historical threat event.The instructions cause the one or more processors to classify the threatevent as inactive upon expiration of the assigned expiry time.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto process the received threat events into a set of standardized threatevent objects each including a threat category from among the threatcategories, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors toapply the expiry times to the standardized threat event objects.

in some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto group a set of the threat events together by determining acorrelation between the start times of the threat events, the threatcategories of the threat events, and locations associated with thethreat events.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a classifier for the expiry time prediction model using theset of historical threat events and assign the expiry time to each ofthe threat events using the classifier.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto apply multiple labels to the historical threat events of the set ofhistorical threat events, the labels applied to each historical threatevent determined based on a histogram analysis of the expiry time of thehistorical threat event.

in some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto apply the labels by separating the historical threat events intomultiple classes, each class of the classes defined by a range of expirytimes.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto train the classifier using the labeled historical threat events.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving threat events indicating apotential threat to at least one of buildings, building equipment,people, or spaces within a building, each threat event including athreat category from among multiple threat categories. The methodincludes for each threat event assigning, using an expiry timeprediction model, an expiry time to the threat event based at least inpart on the threat category of the threat event, the expiry timeprediction model trained using a set of historical threat events. Eachhistorical threat event in the set of historical threat events includesat least one of the threat categories and at least one of an expiry timefor the historical threat event or a start time and an end time usableto determine the expiry time for the historical threat event. The methodincludes classifying the threat event as inactive upon expiration of theassigned expiry time.

In some embodiments, the method further includes processing the receivedthreat events into a set of standardized threat event objects eachincluding, a threat category from among the threat categories. In someembodiments, the method further includes causing the one or moreprocessors to apply the expiry times to the standardized threat eventobjects.

In some embodiments, the method further includes grouping a set of thethreat events together by deter a correlation between the start times ofthe threat events, the threat categories of the threat events, andlocations associated with the threat events.

In some embodiments, the method further includes generating a classifierfor the expiry time prediction model using the set of historical threatevents and assign the expiry time to each of the threat events using theclassifier.

In some embodiments, the method further includes applying multiplelabels to the historical threat events of the set of historical threatevents, the labels applied to each historical threat event determinedbased on the expiry time of the historical threat event.

In some embodiments, the method includes applying the labels includesseparating the historical threat events into multiple classes, eachclass of the classes defined by a range of expiry times.

In some embodiments, the method further includes training the classifierusing the labeled historical threat events.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a building riskanalytics system including one or mote computer-readable, storage mediacommunicably coupled to one or more processors and configured to storeinstructions. The system includes the one or more processors configuredto execute the instructions to receive threat events indicating apotential threat to at least one of buildings, building equipment,people, or spaces within a building, each threat event including athreat category from among multiple threat categories. The one or moreprocessors are configured to execute the instructions to, for eachthreat event, assign, using an expiry time prediction model, an expirytime to the threat event based at least in part on the threat categoryof the threat event, the expiry time prediction model trained using aset of historical threat events. Each historical threat event in the setof historical threat events includes at least one of the threatcategories and at least one of an expiry time for the historical threatevent or a start time and an end time usable by the one or moreprocessor configured to determine the expiry time for the historicalthreat event. The one or more processors are configured to execute theinstructions to classify the threat event as inactive upon expiration ofthe assigned expiry time.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to process the received threat events into aset of standardized threat event objects each including a throatcategory from among the threat categories, the one or more processorsconfigured to apply the expiry times to the standardized threat eventobjects.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to group a set of the threat events together bydetermining a correlation between the start times of the threat events,the threat categories of the threat events, and locations associatedwith the threat events.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to generate a classifier for the expiry timeprediction model using the set of historical threat events and assignthe expiry time to, each of the threat events using the classifier.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to apply multiple labels to the historicalthreat events of the set of historical threat events, the labels appliedto each historical threat event determined based on the expiry time ofthe historical threat event.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to apply the labels by separating thehistorical threat events into multiple classes, each class of theclasses defined by a range of expiry times. In some embodiments, the oneor more processors are configured to execute the instructions to trainthe classifier using the labeled historical threat events.

Geofencing

Another in of the present disclosure is a building management systemincluding one or more computer-readable storage media havinginstructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or moreprocessors, cause the one or more processors to receive multiple threatevents indicating a potential threat to at least one of buildings,building equipment, people, or spaces within a building, the receivedthreat events including a first threat event associated with a firstgeolocation and a first threat category and a second threat eventassociated with a second geolocation and a second threat category. Theinstructions cause the one or more processors to determine, for anasset, a first geofence defining a first area around the asset for thefirst threat category, determine, for the asset, a second geofencedefining a second area around the asset for the second threat category,the second area different than the first area, determine whether thefirst geolocation falls within the first geofence, determine whether thesecond geolocation falls within the second geofence, in response todetermining the first geolocation falls within the first geofence,identify the first threat event as an active threat for the asset, andin response to determining the second geolocation falls within thesecond geofence, identify the second threat event as an active threatfor the asset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto in response to determining the first geolocation falls outside of thefirst geofence, determine the first threat event is not an active threatfor the asset and in response to determining the second geolocationfalls outside of the second geofence, determine the second threat eventis not an active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the first geofence and the second geofence are eachdefined as one of an area centered around the asset and having apredefined radius associated with the threat category or a predefinedgeographic area including a geolocation of the asset.

In some embodiments the asset includes a first asset the instructionscause the one or more processors to determine whether the firstgeolocation falls within a third geofence for the second asset, thethird geofence defining a third area around the second asset for thefirst threat category and in response to determining the firstgeolocation falls within the third geofence, identify the first threatevent as an active threat for the second asset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a first threat event data item for the first threat eventand the first asset and a second threat event data item for the firstthreat event and the second asset.

In some embodiments, the first threat event is associated with a firstthreat geofence, in some embodiments, the instructions cause the one ormore processors to determine whether at least some of the first threatgeofence overlaps with the first geofence. In some embodiments, theinstructions cause the one or more processors to, in response todetermining that at least some of the first threat geofence overlapswith the first geofence, identify the first threat event as an activethreat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine whether at least some of the first threat geofence overlapswith the first geofence by determining whether an intersection area ofthe first threat geofence and the first geofence is greater than apredefined amount.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving multiple threat eventsindicating a potential threat to at least one of buildings, buildingequipment, people, or spaces within a building, the received threatevents including a first threat event, associated with a firstgeolocation and a first threat category and a second threat eventassociated with a second geolocation and a second threat category. Themethod further includes determining, for an asset, a first geofencedefining a first area around the asset for the first threat category,determining, for the asset, a second geofence defining a second areaaround the asset for the second threat category, the second areadifferent than the first area, determining whether the first geolocationfalls within the first geofence, determining whether the secondgeolocation falls within the second geofence, in response to determiningthe first geolocation falls within the first geofence, identifying thefirst threat event as an active threat for the asset, and in response todetermining the second geolocation falls within the second geofence,identifying the second threat event as an active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the method includes in response to determining thefirst geolocation falls outside of the first geofence, determining thefirst threat event is not an active threat for the asset and in responseto determining the second geolocation falls outside of the secondgeofence, determining the second threat event is not an active threatfor the asset.

In some embodiments, the first geofence and the second geofence are eachdefined as one of an area centered around the asset and baying apredefined radius associated with the threat category or a predefinedgeographic area including a geolocation of the asset.

In some embodiments, the asset includes a first asset. In someembodiments, the method further includes determining whether the firstgeolocation falls within a third geofence for the second asset, thethird geofence defining a third area around the second asset for thefirst threat category and in response to determining the firstgeolocation falls within the third geofence, identifying the firstthreat event as an active threat for the second asset.

In some embodiments, the method includes generating a first threat eventdata item, for the first threat event and the first asset and a secondthreat event data item for the first threat event and the second asset.

In some embodiments, the first threat event is associated with a firstthreat geofence, some embodiments, the method further includesdetermining whether at least some of the first threat geofence overlapswith the first geofence. In some embodiments, the method includes, inresponse to determining that at least some of the first threat geofenceoverlaps with the first geofence identifying the first threat event asan active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, determining whether at least some of the firstthreat geofence overlaps with the first geofence includes determiningwhether an intersection area of the first threat geofence and the firstgeofence is greater than a predefined amount.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is, a risk analysissystem including one or more computer-readable storage media havinginstructions stored thereon and one or more processors configured toexecute the instructions to receive multiple threat events indicating apotential threat to at least one of buildings, building equipment,people, or spaces within a building, the received threat eventsincluding a first threat event associated with a first geolocation and afirst threat category and a second threat event associated with a secondgeolocation and a second threat category. The instructions cause the onemore processors to determine, for an asset, a first geofence defining afirst area around the asset for the first threat category, determine,for the asset, a second geofence defining a second area around the assetfor the second threat category, the second area different than the firstarea, determine whether the first geolocation falls within the firstgeofence, determine whether the second geolocation falls within thesecond geofence, in response to determining the first geolocation fallswithin the first geofence, identify the first threat event as an activethreat for the asset, and in response to determining the secondgeolocation falls within the second geofence, identify the second threatevent as an active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to in response to determining the firstgeolocation falls outside of the first geofence, determine the firstthreat event is not an active threat for the asset and in response todetermining the second geolocation falls outside of the second geofence,determine the second threat event is not an active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the first geofence and, the second geofence areeach defined as one of an area centered around the asset and having apredefined radius associated with the threat category or a predefinedgeographic area including a geolocation of the asset.

In some embodiments, the first threat event is associated with a firstthreat geofence. In some embodiments, the one or more processors areconfigured to execute the instructions to determine whether at leastsome of the first threat geofence overlaps with the first geofence, insome embodiments, the one or more processors are configured to executethe instructions to, in response to determining that at least some ofthe first threat geofence overlaps with the first geofence, identify thefirst threat event as an active threat for the asset.

In some embodiments, the asset includes a first asset and the one ormore processors are configured to execute the instructions to determinewhether the first geolocation falls within a third geofence for thesecond asset, the third geofence defining a third area around the secondasset for the first threat category and in response to determining thefirst geolocation falls within the third geofence, identify the firstthreat event as an active threat for the second asset.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to generate a first threat event data item forthe first threat event and the first asset and a second threat eventdata item for the first threat event and the second asset.

Dynamic Modification of Asset Threat Weights

Another implementation of the present disclosure building managementsystem including one or more computer-readable storage media having adata structure, wherein the data structure includes multiplevulnerabilities and multiple pairs, each of the pairs including one ofmultiple assets and one of the threat types, wherein each of the pairsis associated with one of the vulnerabilities and instructions storedthereon. The instructions, when executed by one or more processors,cause the one or more processors to receive a threat, the threatincluding a particular threat type of the threat types, the threatindicating an incident affecting a risk value associated with aparticular asset of the assets, identify a particular vulnerability ofthe data structure based on the particular threat type and theparticular asset, and determine, based on the particular vulnerabilityand the threat, the risk value associated with the particular asset.

In some embodiments, each of the vulnerabilities include a binaryindication of whether the assets are affected by the threat types.

in some embodiments, each of the vulnerabilities is a numeric valueindicating an amount that the assets are affected by each of the threattypes.

In some embodiments, the data structure is a matrix including a firstdimension and a second dimension. In some embodiments, the assets areassociated with the first dimension and the threat types are associatedwith the second dimension.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto provide a data structure retrieve endpoint, wherein the datastructure retrieve endpoint is configured to provide the data structureto a requesting device and provide a data structure update endpoint. Insome embodiments, the data structure update endpoint is configured toupdate the vulnerabilities of the data structure based on updatesreceived from the requesting device.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto receive, via a user interface, an update to a vulnerabilityassociated with the particular asset and the particular threat type andupdate the data structure with the received update to the vulnerability.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate, for the particular asset, a list of threat types that theparticular asset is vulnerable based on the data structure, wherein thelist of threat types are threat types that affect the risk score of theparticular asset, cause the user interface to display the list, receive,via the user interface, an update to the list, the update including anindication to add one or more new threat types, wherein the datastructure does not indicate that the risk score of the particular assetis affected by the one or more new threat types, and update thevulnerabilities of the data structure based on the received update byadding or removing vulnerabilities based on the indication to add theone or more new threat types or remove the one or more threat types ofthe list.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a list indicating identifiers of each of the assets, causethe user, interface to display the list indicating the identifiers ofeach of the assets, receive a selection of the particular asset from thelist indicating the identifiers of each of the assets, and update thevulnerabilities of the data Structure in response to receiving theselection of the particular asset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto receive an indication of a set of assets of the assets, the set ofassets associated with a particular asset category, generate, for theset of assets, a list of threat types that the set of assets isvulnerable to based on the data structure, wherein the list of threattypes are threat types that affect risk scores of the set of assets,cause the user interface to display the list, receive, via the userinterface, an update to the list, the update including an indication toadd one or more new threat types, wherein the data structure does notindicate that the risk scores of the set of assets are affected by theone or more new threat types, and update the vulnerabilities of the datastructure based on the received update by adding or removingvulnerabilities based on the indication to add he one or more new threattypes or remove the one or more threat types of the list.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a list indicating asset categories, cause the user interfaceto display the list indicating the asset categories, receive a selectionof the particular asset category from the list indicating the assetcategories, and update the vulnerabilities of the data structure inresponse to receiving the selection of the particular asset category.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving a threat, the threat including aparticular threat type of threat types, the threat indicating anincident affecting a risk value associated with a particular asset of amultiple assets. The method includes identifying a particularvulnerability of a data structure based on the particular threat typeand the particular asset, wherein the data structure includes thevulnerabilities and multiple pairs, each of the pairs including one ofthe assets and one of the threat types, wherein each of the pairs isassociated with one of the vulnerabilities and determining, based on theparticular vulnerability and the threat, the risk value associated withthe particular asset.

In some embodiments, each of the vulnerabilities include a binaryindication of whether the assets are affected by the threat types.

In some embodiments, each of the vulnerabilities is a numeric valueindicating an amount that the assets are affected by each of the threattypes.

In some embodiments, the data structure is a matrix including a firstdimension and a second dimension, in some embodiments, the assets areassociated with the first dimension and the threat types are associatedwith;the second dimension.

In some embodiments, the method further includes providing a datastructure retrieve endpoint, wherein the data structure retrieveendpoint is configured to provide the data structure to a requestingdevice and providing a data structure update endpoint, wherein the datastructure update endpoint is configured to update the vulnerabilities ofthe data structure based on updates received from the requesting device.

In some embodiments, the method further includes receiving, via a userinterface, an update to a vulnerability associated with the particularasset and the particular threat type and updating the data structurewith the received update to the vulnerability.

In some embodiments, the method further includes generating, for theparticular asset, a list of threat types that the particular asset isvulnerable based on the data structure, wherein the list of threat typesare threat types that affect the risk score of the particular asset,causing the user interface to display the list, receiving, via the userinterface, an update to the list, the update including an indication toadd one or more new threat types, wherein the data structure does notindicate that the risk score of the particular asset is affected by theone or more new threat types, and updating the vulnerabilities of thedata structure based on the received update by adding or removingvulnerabilities based on the indication to add the one or more newthreat types or remove the one or more threat types of the list.

In some embodiments, the method further includes generating a listindicating identifiers of each of the assets, causing the user interfaceto display the list indicating the identifiers of each of the assets,receiving a selection of the particular asset from the list indicatingthe identifiers of each of the assets, and updating the vulnerabilitiesof the data Structure in response to receiving the selection of theparticular asset.

In some embodiments, the method farther includes receiving an indicationof a set of assets of the assets, the set of assets associated with aparticular asset category, generating, for the set of assets, a list ofthreat types that the set of assets is vulnerable to based on the datastructure, wherein the list of threat types are threat types that affectrisk scores of the set of assets, causing the user interface to displaythe list, receiving, via the user interface, an update to the list, theupdate including an indication to add one or more new threat types,wherein the data structure does not indicate that the risk scores of theset of assets are affected by the one or more new threat types, andupdating the vulnerabilities of the data structure based on, thereceived update by adding or removing vulnerabilities based on theindication to add the one or more new threat types or remove the one ormore threat types of the list.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system The system includes one or more computer-readablestorage media communicably coupled to one or more processors andconfigured to store instructions and a data structure, wherein the datastructure includes multiple vulnerabilities and multiple pairs, each ofthe pairs including one of multiple assets and one of the threat types,wherein each of the pairs is associated with one of the vulnerabilities.The system includes the one or more processors configured to execute theinstructions to receive a threat, the threat including a particularthreat type of the threat types, the threat indicating an incidentaffecting a risk value associated with a particular asset of the assets,identify a particular vulnerability of the data structure based on theparticular threat type and the particular asset, and determine, based onthe particular vulnerability and the threat, the risk value associatedwith the particular asset.

Combined Risk From Multiple Threats

Another implementation of the present disclosure is building managementsystem. The building management system includes one or morecomputer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereon that,when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or moreprocessors to receive multiple threats, the threats including a firstthreat and a second threat, the first threat and the second threataffecting a risk score, of an asset. The instructions cause the one ormore processors to determine whether the first threat is correlated withthe second threat, determine a value of the risk score to be a firstvalue in response to a determination that the first threat is correlatedwith the second threat, and determine the value of the risk score to bea second value in response to a determination that the first threat isnot correlated with the second threat.

In some embodiments, the second threat is a second weather threatpresenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of thefirst threat.

To some embodiments, the second threat is a non-weather threatpresenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of thefirst threat. In some embodiments, the first threat event is a weatherthreat event.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine the first value by determining a first risk score for thefirst threat based on a risk model, determining a second risk score forthe second threat based on the risk model, and generating the risk scorebased on the first risk score and the second risk score.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine the first value by updating a parameter value of a threatseverity parameter for the first threat based on the correlation of thefirst threat and the second threat, generating the risk score for thefirst threat based on the risk model and the updated parameter value,generating a second risk score for the second threat based on the riskmodel, and selecting one of the first risk score and the second riskscore by comparing a value of the first risk score to the second riskscore, wherein the selected risk score includes a value representing agreatest level of risk.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a first risk score based on the first threat, generate asecond risk score based on the second threat, and determine the firstvalue by determining a p-norm with the first risk score and the secondrisk score.

In some embodiments, the p-norm is at least one of a 2-norm or aninfinity-norm.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto receive a first set of weather threat data for ⁻weather associatedwith the asset, store the first set of weather threat data in the one ormore computer-readable media, generate, based on the first set ofweather threat data stored in the computer-readable media, normalweather condition rules, wherein the normal weather rules indicate anexpected weather condition, receive a first weather threat, determine,based on the normal weather condition rules, whether first weatherthreat indicates the expected weather condition, and generate the riskscore based on the first weather threat event, wherein generating therisk score includes generating a first weather value for the risk scorein response to the determination that the first weather threat indicatesthe expected weather condition and generating a second weather value forthe risk score in response to the determination that the first weatherthreat indicates that the weather condition is not the expected weathercondition, wherein the second weather value indicates a greater level ofrisk than the first weather value.

In some embodiments, the normal weather condition rules include an uppercondition threshold. In some embodiments, the instructions cause the oneor more processors to determine whether an environmental condition ofthe first weather threat is greater than the upper condition threshold,generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response todetermining that the environmental condition of the first weather threatevent is greater than the upper condition threshold, and generate therisk score to be the first weather value in response to determining thatthe environmental condition of the first weather threat is not greaterthan the upper condition threshold.

In some embodiments, the normal weather condition rules include a lowercondition threshold. In some embodiments, the instructions cause the oneor more processors to determine whether an environmental condition ofthe first weather threat is less than the lower condition threshold,generate the risk score to be the second weather value in response todetermining that the environmental condition of the first weather threatis less than the lower condition threshold, and generate the risk scoreto be the first weather value in response to determining that theenvironmental condition of the first weather threat is not less than thelower condition threshold.

In some embodiments, the normal weather condition rules include an upperrisk score threshold. In some embodiments, the instructions cause theone or more, processors to generate the risk score by generating a thirdweather value for the first weather threat based on a risk model,determining whether the third weather value is greater than the upperrisk threshold, generating the risk score to be the second weather riskscore value in response to determining that the third weather risk scoreis greater than the upper condition threshold, wherein the secondweather value is greater than the first weather value and the thirdweather value, and generating the risk score to be the first weatherrisk score value in response to determining that the third risk score isnot greater than the upper risk threshold

To some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto execute the instructions to generate the risk score for the asset bygenerating the risk score to be the second weather value in response todetermining that the third weather value is greater than the upper riskthreshold by multiplying, the third weather risk score with amultiplier, wherein the multiplier is greater than one.

In some embodiments, the value of the multiplier is based on a frequencyat which a type of the first weather threat occurs. In some embodiments,wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to determine afrequency at which the type of the first weather threat occurs based onthe first set of weather threat data stored in the one or morecomputer-readable media and generate a value for the multiplier based onthe determined frequency at which the type of the first weather threatoccurs.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving multiple threats, the threatsincluding a first threat and a second threat, the first threat and thesecond threat affecting a risk score of an asset and determining whetherthe first threat is correlated with the second threat. The methodincludes determining a value, of the risk score to be a first value inresponse to a determination that the first threat is correlated with thesecond threat and determining the value of the risk score to be a secondvalue in response to a determination that the first threat is notcorrelated with the second threat.

In some embodiments, the second threat is a second weather threatpresenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of thefirst threat.

In some embodiments, the method further includes determining anasset-threat risk score for the first threat and the asset based on avulnerability parameter associated with the asset, an asset costparameter associated with the asset, a severity associated with thefirst threat, and a geographic distance between the asset and the firstthreat.

In some embodiments, the second threat is a non-weather threatpresenting a threat that increases as a result of a presence of thefirst threat. In some embodiments, the first threat event is a weatherthreat event.

To some embodiments, determining the first value includes determining afirst risk score for the first threat based on a risk model, determininga second risk score for the second threat based on the risk model, andgenerating the risk score based on the'first risk score and the secondrisk score.

In some embodiments, determining the first value includes updating aparameter value of a threat severity parameter for the first threatbased on the correlation of the first threat and the second threat,generating the risk score for the first threat based on the risk modeland the updated parameter value, generating a second risk score for thesecond threat based on the risk model, and selecting one of the firstrisk score and the second risk score by comparing a value of the firstrisk score to the second risk score, wherein the selected risk scoreincludes a value representing a greatest level of risk.

In some embodiments, the method includes generating a first risk scorebased on the first threat, generating a second risk score based on thesecond threat, and determining the first value by determining a p-normwith the first risk score and the second risk score.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system. The system includes one or more computer-readablestorage media communicably coupled to one or more processors andconfigured to store instructions. The system includes the one or moreprocessors configured to execute the instructions to receive multiplethreats, the threats including a first threat and a second threat, thefirst threat and the second threat affecting a risk score of an asset,determine whether the first threat is correlated with the second threat,determine a value of the risk score to be a first value in response to adetermination that the first threat is correlated with the secondthreat, and determine the value of the risk score to be a second valuein response to a determination that the first threat is not correlatedwith the second threat.

Dynamic Risk Baseline Risk, and Monitoring Client

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system. The system includes one or more computer-readablestorage media having instructions stored thereon that, when executed byone or more processors, cause the one or more processors to receivemultiple threats, the threats each indicating an incident affecting adynamic risk score associated with an asset, wherein one or more of thethreats are current threats that are active at a current point in timeand one or more of the threats are historic threats that were active atone or more past times. The instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to generate based on the, one or more current threats, thedynamic risk score at the current point in time, generate, based on theone or more historic threats, a baseline risk score, and cause a userinterface to display an indication of the dynamic risk score at thecurrent point in time and an indication of the baseline risk score.

In some embodiments, the one or more historic threats are stored in theone or more computer-readable storage media. In some embodiments, theinstructions cause the one or more processors to determine that apredefined amount of time has passed, retrieve the one or more historicthreats from the one or more computer-readable storage media in responseto a determination that the predefined amount of time has passed, andgenerate, based on the retrieved one or more historic threats, thebaseline risk score.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto execute the instructions to generate, based on the one or morehistoric threats, the baseline risk score by averaging a particulardynamic risk score associated with each of the historic threats.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto cause the user interface to display the indication of the dynamicrisk score at the current point in time and the indication of thebaseline risk score by generating an asset risk card element, the assetrisk card element including an indication of the asset, the indicationof the dynamic risk score at the current point in time, and theindication of the baseline risk score and causing the user interface todisplay the asset risk card element.

In some embodiments, each of the historic threats include one of amultiple threat types. In some embodiments, the one or more processorsare configured to execute the instructions to determine a first categorybaseline for the asset based on one or more of the historic threats ofthe historic threats including a first threat type of the threat types,determine a second category baseline for the asset based on one or moreof the historic threats of the historic threats including a secondthreat type of the threat types, and cause the user interface to displayan indication of the first category baseline and the second categorybaseline.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto record the baseline risk score over a period of time as new threatsare received, record the dynamic risk score over the period of time asnew threats are received, and generate a risk trend element, the risktrend element including a baseline risk trend and a dynamic risk trend,wherein the baseline risk trend is based on the baseline risk scorerecorded over the time period and the dynamic risk trend is based on thedynamic risk score recorded over the time period.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine a total change in the dynamic risk score over the period oftime based on a first dynamic risk score at a beginning of the period oftime and a last dynamic risk score at an end of the period of time,determine whether the dynamic risk score is rising or falling over theperiod of time based on the first dynamic risk score at the beginning ofthe period of time and the last dynamic risk score the end of the periodof time, and cause the risk trend element to include an indication ofthe total change in the dynamic risk score and an indication of whetherthe dynamic risk score is rising or failing over the period of time.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto receive a new threat for the asset, the new threat including anexpiry time and affecting the dynamic risk score of the asset,determine, based on the expiry time, whether the new threat is active,determine a dynamic risk score for the new threat in response to adetermination that the new threat is active, retrieve, from the one ormore computer readable medium, one or more active threats associatedwith the asset, each of the one or more active threats being associatedwith a dynamic risk score, and determine the dynamic risk score for theasset based on the dynamic risk score for the new threat and the dynamicrisks cores for the one or more active threats,

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto store the new threat in the one or more computer readable medium witha status, wherein the status is active and update the status of the newthreat to closed in response to a determination that the expiry time haspassed.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving threats, the threats eachindicating an incident affecting a dynamic risk score associated with anasset wherein one or mote of the threats are current threats that areactive at a current point in time and one or more of the threats arehistoric threats that were active at one or more past times. The methodincludes generating, based on the one or mote current threats, thedynamic risk score at the current point in time, generating, based onthe one or more historic threats, a baseline risk score, and causing auser interface to display an indication of the dynamic risk score at thecurrent point in time and an indication of the baseline risk score.

In some embodiments, the method includes determining the dynamic riskscore based on a vulnerability parameter associated with the asset, anasset cost parameter associated with the asset, a severity associatedwith the one or more cumin threats, and a geographic distance betweenthe asset and the one or more current threats.

In some embodiments, the method includes generating a list including theone or more current threats, each of the one or more current threatsassociated with a particular dynamic risk score and, sorting the listbased on the particular dynamic risk scores of each of the one or morecurrent threats.

In some embodiments, storing the one or more historic threats in one ormore computer-readable storage media determining that a predefinedamount of time has passed, retrieving the one or more historic threatsfrom the one or more computer-readable storage media in response to adetermination that the predefined amount of time has passed, andgenerating, based on the retrieved one or more historic threats, thebaseline risk score.

In some embodiments, determining, based on the particular vulnerabilityand the threat, the risk value associated with the particular asset isfurther based on a vulnerability parameter associated with theparticular asset, an asset cost parameter associated with the particularasset, a severity associated with the threat, and a geographic distancebetween the particular asset and the threat.

To some embodiments, generating, based on the one or more historicthreats, the baseline risk score includes averaging a particular dynamicrisk score associated with each of the historic threats.

In some embodiments, causing the user interface to, display theindication of the dynamic risk score at the current point in time andthe indication of the baseline risk score includes generating an assetrisk card element, the asset risk card element including an indicationof the asset, the indication of the dynamic risk score at the currentpoint in tune, and the indication of the baseline risk score and causingthe user interface to display the asset risk card element.

In some embodiments, each of the historic threats includes one ofmultiple threat types. In some embodiments, the method further includesdetermining a first category baseline for the asset based on one or moreof the historic threats of the historic threats including a first threattype of the threat types, determining a second category baseline for theasset based on one or more of the historic threats of the historicthreats including a second threat type of the threat types, and causingthe user interface to display an indication of the first categorybaseline and the second category baseline.

In some embodiments, the method includes recording the baseline riskscore over a period of time as new threats are received, recording thedynamic risk score over the period of time as new threats are received,and generating a risk trend element, the risk trend element including abaseline risk trend and a dynamic risk trend, wherein the baseline risktrend is based on the baseline risk score recorded over the time periodand the dynamic risk trend is based on the dynamic risk score recordedover the time period.

In some embodiments, the method includes determining a total change inthe dynamic risk score over the period of time based on a first dynamicrisk score at a beginning of the period of time and a last dynamic riskscore at an end of the period of time, determining whether the dynamicrisk score is rising or falling over the period of time based on thefirst dynamic risk score at the beginning of the period of time and thelast dynamic risk score at the end of the period of time, and causingthe risk trend element to include an indication of the total change inthe dynamic risk score and an indication of whether the dynamic riskscore is rising or falling over the period of time.

In some embodiments, the method includes receiving a new threat for theasset, the new threat including an expiry time and affecting the dynamicrisk score of the asset, determining, based on the expiry time, whetherthe new threat is active, determining a dynamic risk score for the newthreat in response to a determination that the new threat is active,retrieving, from one or more computer readable medium, one or moreactive threats associated with the asset, each of the one or more activethreats being associated with a dynamic risk score, and determining, thedynamic risk score for the asset based on the dynamic risk score for thenew threat and the dynamic risks cores for the one or more activethreats.

In some embodiments, the method includes storing the new threat in theone or more computer readable medium with a status, wherein the statusis active and updating the status of the new threat to closed inresponse to a determination that the expiry time has passed.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a risk analysissystem including one or more computer-readable storage mediacommunicably coupled to one or more processors and configured to storeinstructions and the one or more processors configured to execute theinstructions to receive multiple threats, the threats each indicating anincident affecting a dynamic risk score associated with an asset,wherein one or more of the threats are current threats that are activeat a current point in time and one or more of the threats are historicthreats that were active at one or more past times. The instructionscause the one or more processors to generate, based on the one or morecurrent threats, the dynamic risk score at the current point in time,generate, based on the one or more historic threats, a baseline riskscore, and cause a user interface to display an indication of thedynamic risk score at the current point in time and an indication of thebaseline risk score.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are configured toexecute the instructions to cause the user interface to display theindication of the dynamic risk score at the current point in time andthe indication of the baseline risk score by generating an asset riskcard element, the asset risk card element including an indication of theasset, the indication of the dynamic risk score at the current point intime, and the indication of the baseline risk score and causing the userinterface to display the asset risk card element.

In some embodiments, the dynamic risk score is on a scale from zero toone hundred.

Risk Decay

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system one or more computer-readable storage media havinginstructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or moreprocessors, cause the one or more processors to receive a threat, thethreat including a particular threat type, the threat indicating anincident affecting a risk value associated with an asset. Theinstructions cause the one or more processors to determine, based on thethreat and the asset, the risk value at a first point in time, select adecay model based on the particular threat type, and update the riskvalue at multiple points in time after the first point in time with thedecay model causing the risk value to decay.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto generate a list including multiple threats and the threat, each ofthe threats associated with a particular asset and the threat associatedwith the asset, sort the list based on the risk value and multiple otherrisk values to list the threats in order of highest risk score to lowestrisk score, each of the other risk values associated with one of thethreats and associated with one of the assets, and update the sortedlist as the risk value decays to list the threats in order of thehighest risk score to the lowest risk score.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto execute the instructions to select the decay model based on theparticular threat type and further based on the asset.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto select the decay model based on the particular threat type byselecting the decay model from at least one of a polynomial decay model,an exponential decay model, or a linear decay mode.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto publish the risk score at each of the points in time to a risk scoretopic, read the risk score topic to retrieve the risk score at each ofthe points in time, and cause a user interface to display an indicationof the risk score at each of the points in time based on the read of therisk score topic.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto receive a multiple threats, each of the threats including aparticular threat type, each of the threats indicating an incidentaffecting a risk value associated with an asset, determine, based on thethreats and the asset, multiple risk values at a first point in time,each risk value associated with the asset and one of the threats, selecta decay model for each of the threats based on the threat type of eachof the threats, update each of the risk values at multiple points intime after the first point in time with the decay models selected foreach of the threats, and determine the risk value at each of the pointsin time, associated with the asset by selecting a highest risk valuefrom the risk values at each of the points in time.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine, based on, the type of the particular threat, an expirationtime, wherein the expiration time indicates the length of time that thethreat will affect the risk value associated with the asset. In someembodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processors to updatethe risk value at the points in time after the first point in time withthe decay model and the expiration time causing the risk, value to decayto a particular value at an end of the expiration time.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto update the risk value at the points in time after the first point intime with the decay model and the expiration time by determining, at asecond point in time of the points in time after the first point intime, a decay factor based on the expiration time and the decay modeland determining the risk value at the second point in time bymultiplying the risk value at the first point in time by the decayfactor.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto store the threat, the expiration time, and the decay model in the oneor more computer-readable storage media and at each of the points intime retrieve the threat, the expiration time, and the decay model fromthe one or Mere computer-readable storage media, determine, whether thethreat has expired by determining whether the expiration time haspassed, determine the decay factor based on the expiration time and thedecay model in response to a determination that the threat has notexpired, and determine the risk value by multiplying the risk value at aprevious point in time with the decay model to determine the risk value,at a current point in time.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto store a threat status fir the threat in the one or morecomputer-readable storage media, wherein the stored threat status is anactive threat status indicating that the expiration time has not passed,retrieve, at each of the points in time, the threat status, and updatethe threat status stored in the one or more computer-readable storagemedia to closed in response to a determination that the expiration timehas passed.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving a threat, the threat including aparticular threat type, the threat indicating an incident affecting arisk value associated with an asset and determining, based on the threatand the asset, the risk value at a first point in time. The methodincludes selecting, a decay model based on the particular threat typeand updating the risk value at multiple points in time after the firstpoint in time with the decay model causing the risk value to decay.

In some embodiments, determining, based on the threat and the asset, therisk value at a first point in time is based on a vulnerabilityparameter associated with the asset, an asset cost parameter associatedwith the asset, a severity associated with the threat, and a geographicdistance between the asset and the threat.

In some embodiments, the method includes generating a list includingmultiple threats and the threat, each of the threats associated with aparticular asset and the threat associated with the asset, sorting thelist based on the risk value and multiple other risk values to list thethreats in order of highest risk score to lowest risk score, each of theother risk values associated with one of the threats and associated withone of the assets, and updating the sorted list as the risk value decaysto list the threats in order of the highest risk score to the lowestrisk score.

In some embodiments, the method includes selecting select the decaymodel based on the particular threat type and further based on theasset.

In some embodiments, the method includes selecting the decay model basedon the particular threat type by selecting the decay model from at leastone of a polynomial decay model, an exponential decay model, or a lineardecay mode.

In some embodiments, the method includes publishing., the risk score ateach of the points in time to a risk score topic, reading the risk scoretopic to retrieve the risk score at each of the points in time, andcausing a user interface to display an indication of the risk score ateach of the points in time based on the read of the risk score topic.

In some embodiments, the method includes receiving multiple threats,each of the threats including a particular threat type, each of thethreats indicating an incident affecting a risk value associated with anasset, determining, based on the threats and the asset, multiple riskvalues at a first point in time, each risk value associated with theasset and one of the threats, selecting a decay model for each of thethreats based on the threat type of each of the threats, updating eachof the risk values at multiple points in time after the first point intime with the decay models selected for each of the threats, anddetermining the risk value at each of the points in time associated withthe asset by selecting a highest risk value from the risk values at eachof the points in time.

In some embodiments, the method includes determining, based on the typeof the particular threat, an expiration time, wherein the expirationtime indicates the length of time that the threat will affect the riskvalue associated with the asset. In some embodiments, updating the riskvalue at the points in time after the first point in time includesupdating the risk value with the decay model and the expiration timecausing, the risk value to decay to a particular value at an end of theexpiration time.

in some embodiments, the method includes updating the ^(risk) value atthe points in time after the first point in time with the decay modeland the expiration time by determining, at a second point in time of thepoints in time after the first point in time, a decay factor based onthe expiration time and the decay model and determining the risk valueat the second point in time by multiplying the risk value at the firstpoint in time by the decay factor.

In some embodiments, the method includes storing the threat, theexpiration time, and the decay model in one or more computer-readablestorage media and at each of the points in time retrieving the threat,the expiration time, and the decay model from the one or morecomputer-readable storage media, determining, whether the threat hasexpired by determining whether the expiration time has passed,determining the decay factor based on the expiration time and the decaymodel in response to a determination that the threat has not expired,and determining the risk value by multiplying the risk value at aprevious point in time with the decay model to determine the risk valueat a current point in time.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a risk analyticssystem. The system includes one or more computer-readable storage mediacommunicably coupled to one or more processors and configured to storeinstructions and the one or more processors configured to execute theinstructions to receive a threat, the threat including a particularthreat type, the threat indicating an incident affecting a risk valueassociated with an asset. The instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to determine, based on the threat and the asset, the riskvalue at a first point in time, select a decay model based on theparticular threat type, and update the risk value at multiple points intime after the first point in time with the decay model causing the riskvalue to decay.

Global Risk Dashboard

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a buildingmanagement system including one or more computer-readable storage mediahaving instructions stored thereon that, when executed by one or moreprocessors, cause the one or more processors to receive multiple threatevents indicating a potential threat to one or more of multiple assets,the assets including at least one of buildings, building equipment,people, or spaces within a building, the received threat eventsassociated with multiple threat categories, the assets associated withmultiple of locations. The instructions cause the one or moreprocessors, for each of the assets, to determine one or more of thethreat events affecting the asset and generate a risk score for theasset based on the threat events determined to affect the asset. Theinstructions cause the one or more processors to generate alocation-specific aggregated risk score for two or more of the locationsbased oil a combination of the risk scores for the assets associatedwith the locations, generate a category-specific risk metric indicating,for each of at least two or more of the threat categories, a number ofthreat events associated with the threat categories, generate userinterface data including, within a single interface, visualrepresentations of both the location-specific aggregated risk scores forthe two or more locations and the category-specific risk metrics for thetwo or more threat categories, and case the user interface data to bedisplayed on a device,

In some embodiments, the user interface data further includes, withinthe single inter faces a total number of active alarms across thelocations and the threat categories.

In some embodiments, the one or more processors are further configuredto determine, for each of multiple timeframes, a timeframe-specificaggregated risk score based on a combination of the risk scores fir theassets within the timeframe, the user interface data further including,within the single interface, a risk score time chart;illustrating thetimeframe-specific aggregated risk scores for at least two of thetimeframes.

In some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine two or more of the assets using the risk scores of theassets, the user interface data further including a detailed assetinterface including an identification of the two or more assets, therisk score for the assets, and an identification of one or more riskevents affecting the assets.

In some embodiments, the user interface data includes a mapping portionshowing the two or more locations, and wherein the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores areprovided within the mapping portion.

In some embodiments, at least one of a size or a color of the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores isdetermined based on values of the location-specific aggregated riskscores.

To some embodiments, the instructions cause the one or more processorsto determine two or more of the threat events associated with highestrisk scores among the threat events and across the locations, the userinterface data further including a detailed threat interface includingthe risk score, threat category, and a description for each of the twoor more threat events.

In some embodiments, the detailed threat interface includes categoryfilters configured to permit a user to select one or more threatcategories, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors tolimit the threat events displayed within the detailed threat interfacebased on the selected threat categories.

In some embodiments, the detailed threat interface includes categoryfilters configured to permit a user to select one or more threatcategories, wherein the:instructions cause the one or more processors tolimit the threat events displayed within the detailed threat interfacebased on the selected threat categories. In some embodiments, thedetailed threat interface includes severity filters configured to permita user to select one or more severity ranges, wherein the instructionscause the one or more processors to limit the threat events displayedwithin the detailed threat interface based on the selected severityrange, in some embodiments, the detailed threat interface includinggeographic region filters configured to permit a user to select one ormore geographic regions, wherein the instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to limit the threat events displayed within the detailedthreat interface based on the selected geographic region. In someembodiments, the detailed threat interface includes forecasted threatvalues for an asset, wherein the instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to generate the forecasted threat values based on historicalthreat values,

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a method for riskanalysis. The method includes receiving multiple threat, eventsindicating a potential threat to one or more of multiple assets, theassets including at least one of buildings, building equipment, people,or spaces within a building, the received threat events associated withmultiple threat categories, the assets associated with multiplelocations. The method includes, for each of the assets, determining oneor more of the threat events affecting the asset and generating a riskscore for the asset based on the threat events determined to affect theasset. The method includes generating a location-specific aggregatedrisk score for two or more, of the locations based on a combination ofthe risk scores for the assets associated with the locations, generatinga category-specific risk metric indicating, for each of at least two ormore of the threat categories, a number of threat events associated withthe threat categories, generating user interface data including, withina single interface, visual representations of both the location-specificaggregated risk scores for the two or more locations and thecategory-specific risk metrics for the two or more threat categories,and causing the user interface data to be displayed on a device.

In some embodiments, the user interface data further includes, withinthe single interface, a total number of active alarms across thelocations and the threat categories,

In some embodiments, the method includes determining, for each ofmultiple timeframes, a timeframe-specific aggregated risk score based ona combination of the risk scores for the assets within the timeframe,the user interface data further including, within the single interface,a risk score time chart illustrating the timeframe-specific aggregatedrisk scores for at least two of the timeframes.

In some embodiments, the method includes determining two or more of theassets using the risk scores of the assets, the user interface datafurther including a detailed asset interface including an identificationof the two or more assets, the risk score for the assets, and anidentification of one or more risk events affecting the assets.

In some embodiments, the user interface data includes a mapping portionshowing the two, or more locations, and wherein the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores areprovided within the mapping portion.

In some embodiments, at least one of a size or a color of the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores isdetermined based on values of the location-specific aggregated riskscores.

In some embodiments, the method further includes determining, two ormore of the threat events associated with highest risk scores among thethreat events and across the locations, the user interface data furtherincluding a detailed threat interface including the risk score, threatcategory, and a description for each of the two or more threat events.

In some embodiments, the detailed threat interface including categoryfilters configured to permit a user to select one or more threatcategories. In some embodiments, the method further includes limitingthe threat events displayed within the detailed threat interface basedon the selected threat categories.

Another implementation of the present disclosure is a risk analysissystem including one or more computer-readable storage media havinginstructions stored thereon and one or more processors configured toexecute the instructions to receive multiple threat events indicating apotential threat to one or more of multiple assets, the assets includingat least one of buildings, building equipment, people, or spaces withina building, the received threat events associated with multiple threatcategories, the assets associated with multiple locations. Theinstructions cause the one or more processors, for each of the assets,to determine one or more of the threat events affecting the asset andgenerate a risk score for the asset based on the threat eventsdetermined to affect the asset. The instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to generate a location-specific aggregated risk score for twoor more of the locations based on a combination of the risk scores forthe assets associated with the locations, generate a category-specificrisk metric indicating, for each of at least two or more of the threatcategories, a number of threat events associated with the threatcategories, generate user interface data including, within a singleinterface, visual representations of both the location-specificaggregated risk scores for the two or more locations and thecategory-specific risk metrics for the two or more threat categories,and cause the user interface data to be displayed on a device.

In some embodiments, the user interface data further includes, withinthe single interface, a total number of active alarms across thelocations and the threat categories.

In some embodiments, the user interface data includes a mapping portionshowing the two or more locations, and wherein the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores areprovided within the mapping portion.

To some embodiments, at least one of a size or a color of the visualrepresentations of the location-specific aggregated risk scores isdetermined based on values of the location-specific aggregated riskscores.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

Various objects, aspects, features, and advantages of the disclosurewill become more apparent and better understood by referring to thedetailed description taken in conjunction with the accompanyingdrawings, in which like reference characters identify correspondingelements throughout. In the drawings, like reference numbers generallyindicate identical, functionally similar, and/or structurally similarelements.

FIG. 1, a block diagram of a system including a risk analytics systemfor handling threats via a risk analysis system including a dataingestion service, a geofence service, and a risk analytics pipeline(RAP) is shown, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating the data ingestion service of therisk analytics system of FIG. 1 in greater detail, according to anexemplary embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a flow diagram of a process that can be performed by the dataingestion service of FIG. 2 to ingest threats received from multipledifferent data sources, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram illustrating the RAP of the risk analysissystem of FIG. 1 in greater detail, according to an exemplaryembodiment.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating the mapping of threats frommultiple different data sources to a standardized category format,according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a natural language processing (NLP) engineof the data ingestion service of FIG. 2, according to an exemplaryembodiment.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram of a process that can be performed by the NLPengine of FIG. 6 of training a classification model for the NLP engine,according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of an interface for labelling data fortraining the NLP engine of FIG. 6, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of an interface for logging a user into alabelling tool for tracking the labeling of users for training the NLPengine of FIG. 6, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 10 is a flow diagram of a process for assigning threats to threatcategories by performing a similarity analysis that can be performed bythe NLP engine of FIG. 6, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 11 is a flow diagram of a process for training a model forpredicting an expiry time for a threat that can be performed by the dataingestion service of FIG. 2, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 12 is a chart illustrating a number of recorded threats withdifferent expiry time classes, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 13 is a block diagram of a cross-correlator of the data ingestionservice of FIG. 2 grouping similar threats reported by different datasources, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 14 is a flow diagram of a process for cross-correlating similarthreats reported by different data sources that can be performed by thecross-correlator of FIG. 13, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 15 is a flow diagram of a process, for performing geofencing todetermine whether a threat affects an asset that can be performed by thegeofence service of FIG. 1, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 16 is a schematic drawing of a city with multiple assets andthreats, each asset being associated with a geofence, according to anexemplary embodiment.

FIG. 17 is a vulnerability-threat (VT) matrix illustrating vulnerabilitylevels for particular assets based on different types of threats,according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 18A is a block diagram of a risk engine for determining risk valueswith a threat, vulnerability, and cost (TVC) model, according to anexemplary embodiment.

FIG. 18B is a block diagram of the RAP of FIG. 1 including a weatherservice configured to adjust threat parameters of dynamically generatedrisk scores based on weather data, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 18C is a block diagram of the RAP of FIG. 1 including the weatherservice of FIG. 18B and a weather threat analyzer, the weather threatanalyzer configured to generate a combined risk score for multipleweather threat, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 18D is a block diagram of the RAP of FIG. 1 including the weatherservice of FIG. 18B and a weather threat analyzer, the weather threatanalyzer configured to analyze historical data to generate a risk scorefor anomalous weather threat events, according to an exemplaryembodiment;

FIG. 18E is a flow diagram of a process tsar generating a risk scorebased on multiple weather threat events that can be performed by theweather service of FIG. 18B, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 18F is a flow diagram of a process for generating a risk score foran anomalous weather threat event based on historical data analysis thatcan be performed by the weather threat analyzer of FIG. 18D, accordingto an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 19 is a schematic drawing of a user interface for modifying the VTmatrix of FIG. 17, according to an exemplary embodiment,

FIG. 20 is a flow diagram of a process for decaying risk values overtime and determining a baseline risk value that can be performed by theRAP of FIG. 4, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 21 is a chart illustrating risk scores over time without decayingthe risk values, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 22 is a chart illustrating risk scores being decayed over time,according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 23 is a chart illustrating an exponential risk decay model fordecaying risk that can be used in, the process of FIG. 20, according toan exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 24 is a chart illustrating a polynomial risk decay model fordecaying risk that can be used in the process of FIG. 20, according toan exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 25 is a schematic drawing of a user interface including informationfor an asset and a threat, a dynamic risk score, and a baseline riskscore, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 26 is a schematic drawing of a user interface providing informationfor an asset and threats affecting the asset, according to an exemplaryembodiment.

FIG. 27 is a schematic drawing of a risk card for a user interface, therisk card indicating dynamic risk score and a baseline risk, score,according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 28 is a schematic drawing of a user interface including multiplethreats dynamically sorted by risk score, according to an exemplaryembodiment.

FIG. 29 is another schematic drawing of the user interface of FIG. 28illustrating threats being dynamically sorted over other threats basedon risk score, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 30 is a schematic drawing of a user interface tier a global riskdashboard, including threat metrics, geographic risk, threatinformation, and asset information, according to an exemplaryembodiment.

FIG. 31 is a schematic drawing of a user interface including a dynamicrisk score trend and a baseline risk score trend, according to anexemplary embodiment.

FIG. 32 is a schematic drawing of a user interface of a risk dashboardindicating threats impacting assets by grouping, sorting, andforecasting, according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 33 is a schematic drawing of a user interface including commentsfrom other security advisors and a list of top assets impacted bythreats, according to an exemplary embodiment.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION Overview

Referring generally to the FIGURES, systems and methods are shown for arisk analytics system for a building or multiple buildings, according tovarious exemplary embodiments. The risk analytics system can beconfigured for threat and risk analytics for security operations of thebuilding. The, analytics system provides a set of algorithms forscalable risk analytics pipeline including the threat data ingestion,enrichments, analytics, and machine learning models, risk modeling,reports, and presentation.

Many organizations need scalable and reliable security solutions tomitigate risk, monitor security operations and lower the chance ofpotential loss or damage on their assets. Asset can be anything that isvaluable for that organization including campuses, buildings, personnel,equipment, and resources. Depending on the type of the asset, each assetmight be vulnerable towards a set of threats. Understanding therelationship between an asset and the set of threats is a complex taskthat require an infrastructure that can gather all the relevant datafrom different sources, analyze the data in multiple processing stepsand generate rich yet easy to understand information to securityoperators and site monitors so that these personal can take appropriateactions. The analytics systems and methods as described herein cangenerate risk information for use in prioritization of alarms,presenting users with contextual threat and/or asset information,reducing the response time to threats by raising the situationalawareness, and automating response actions. In case of mobile assets,another block to the analytics system can be included to identify thelocation of the mobile asset since the location of the mobile asset willbe dynamically changing while the rest of the pipeline of the analyticssystem may remain the same.

The analytics system as described herein can be configured to usesvarious components to provide scalability and reliable securitysolutions. The analytics system can be configured to ingest threat datafrom multiple disparate data sources. The threat data can be informationindicating a particular threat incident, i.e., an event that may put thebuilding or other asset at risk (e.g., a chance of personal injury,theft, asset damage, etc.). Based on the ingested threat data, theanalytics system can identify which of a collection of stored assets areaffected by the threat, e.g., by performing geofencing with geofences ofthe assets and reported locations of the threat data. Based on theindication of assets affecting threats, the analytics system can performrisk analytics via an analytics pipeline to perform operations such asrisk calculation, for the threat and asset, risk decay, and variousother analytical operations.

Furthermore, based on the analyzed threat and asset data the analyticssystem can present information to a user, e.g., a security officer, viauser interface systems. The user interface system can facilitate alarmhandling by providing contextual information together with risk scoresfor particular threats. Using the risk asset score for an alarm event,security personnel can, filter and/or sort alarm events to show orhighlight the highest risk alarms.

Referring now to FIG. 1, a system 100 is shown including a riskanalytics system 106 configured to perform data ingestion with a dataingestion service 116, geofencing with a geofence service 118, riskanalytics with a risk analytics pipeline (RAP) 120, and user interfaceoperations with risk applications 126, according to an exemplaryembodiment. The system 100 further includes third party data sources102, network 104, and user devices 108. The risk analytics system 106 isshown to he communicably coupled to the data sources 102 and the userdevices 108 via the network 104.

The network 104 can communicatively couple the devices and systems ofsystem 100. In some embodiments, network 104 is at least one of and/or acombination of a Wi-Fi network, a wired Ethernet network, a ZigBeenetwork, a Bluetooth network, and/or any other wireless network, Network104 may be a local area network or a wide area network (e.g., theInternet, a building WAN, etc.) and may use a variety of communicationsprotocols (e.g., BACnet, IP. LON, etc.). Network 104 may includerouters, modems, servers, cell towers, satellites, and/or networkswitches. Network 104 may be a combination of wired and wirelessnetworks.

Via the network 104, the risk analytics system 106 can be configured toingest (receive, process, and/or standardize) data from data sources102. The data sources 102 can be located locally within a building oroutside a building and can report threats for multiple buildings,cities, states, countries, and/or continents. The data sources 102 canbe local building systems, e.g., access control systems, camera securitysystems, occupancy sensing systems, and or any other system locatedwithin a building. Furthermore, the data sources 102 can be governmentagency systems that report threats, e.g., a police report serverproviding the risk analytics system 106 with police reports.

The data sources can be analytics companies e.g., Dataminr, NC4, Lenelon Guard, and/or any other analytics system configured to collect,and/or report threats. Dataminr is a service that monitors social mediadata and generates alarms on different topics. Dataminr can beconfigured to send alarms generated from twitter data to the riskanalytics system 106. NC4 can be configured to generate incidents and/oradvisory alerts and provide the incidents and/or alerts to the riskanalytics system 106. NC4 can include local resources on different partsof the globe to collect data for generating the incidents and/oradvisory alerts. Lenel is a system that manages the entrance, badgemonitoring and etc. in a building.

The risk analytics system 106 can be configured to support any type ofdata source and is not limited to the data sources enumerated above. Anylive feed of potential threats according to the vulnerabilities of theasset under protection can be used as a data source for the riskanalytics system 106.

The threat data reported by the data sources 102 can include timeinformation, location information, summary text, an indication of athreat category, and a severity indication.

Threat Data={Time Information, Location Information, Summary Text,Category, Severity}

In some embodiments, the data sources 102 are configured to provide timeinformation, e.g., date and time information for reported threats to therisk analytics system 106. In some embodiments, the current time stampcan be attached to the incoming threats. However, this timinginformation may be different for different data sources, for example,some data sources may indicate that a current time of the data providedby the data source is the time of that threat occurring. In this regard,for data from data sources that indicate that the time of a threat isthe time that the threat data is received, the risk analytics system 106can add the time of threat occurrence as the time that the threat wasreceived.

The data source can provide the location information on the incident.The location information could be the latitude and longitude of theincident. Both point and area information can be included. For example,some incidents like weather related threats affect a large area and theyare not a specific point on the map but rather a particular geographicarea. However, some other incidents like traffic incidents, bombing, orurban fires may be associated with a specific point on a map. The threatdata can further include summary text or otherwise a text explanation ofthe incident should also be included in the threat reported.

Furthermore, the threat data can include an indication of a category ofthe incident. For example, each of the data sources 102 ran define acategory for the threat data, crime, fire, hurricane, tornado, etc. Eachof the data sources 102 may have a unique category scheme. For example,one data source could define a shooting as a “Crime” category whileanother data source would define the same event as a “Violent Activity”category. If no category is reported by a data source, the riskanalytics system 106 can be configured to determine a category from thetext summary of the threat using Natural Language Processing (NLP).

The threat data can include severity information. Threats might bedifferent in terms of severity, in order to understand the potentialrisk for that specific threat, the severity information can be includedin the threat data. Different scales can be used fir different datasources (e.g., 1-10, 1-5, A-F, etc.). The risk analytics system 106 canbe configured to convert the severity levels to a standard format aspart of ingesting data from the data sources 102.

The data sources 102 can provide real-time updates on potential and/oractual threats. Depending on the application, the data sources 102 maydiffer significantly in the formatting and/or reporting scheme of thedata source. There should be some analysis done on the assetvulnerability before deciding on what data sources are suitable toreport the potential threats. For example if the main vulnerability ofthe asset is towards natural disasters and extreme weather conditionsthen a proper channel that provides real-time updates on the weatherconditions and forecast would be an appropriate data source for the riskanalytics system 106.

Another example is social media information, if a reputation of acompany is part of the asset the risk analytics system 106 is to protector the way consumers share their feedback and thoughts on social mediaare a good indication of possible threats to hurt the companyreputation. Then a data source that reports updates on social mediatopics and trends can be valuable for the risk analytics system 106.This can be extended to sensors and camera feeds that monitor a buildingor campus and generate alarms (threats) that need to be ingested andanalyzed to deduce the best action possible. The data sources 102 caneither be first party and/or third party, i.e., platforms an for fromequipment owned by an entity and/or generated by data sources subscribedto by an entity.

The risk analytics system 106 can be a computing system configured toperform threat ingesting, threat analysis, and user interfacesmanagement. The risk analytics system 106 can be a server, multipleservers, a controller, a desktop computer, and/or any other computingsystem. In some embodiments the risk analytics system 106 can be a cloudcomputing system e.g., Amazon Web Services (AWS) and/or MICROSOFT AZURE.The risk analytics system 106 can be an off-premises system located inthe cloud or an on-premises system located within a building of theentity and/or on a campus.

Although the risk analytics system 106 can be implemented on a singlesystem and/or distributed across multiple systems, the components of therisk analytics system 106 (the data ingestion service 116, the geofenceservice 118, the RAP 120, and the risk applications 126) are shown toinclude processor(s) 112 and memories 114. In some embodiments, the riskanalytics system 106 is distributed, in whole or in part, acrossmultiple different processing circuits. The components of the riskanalytics system 106 can be implement on one, or across multiple of thememories 114 and/or the processors 112 such that, for example, each ofthe data ingestion service 116, the geofence service 118, the RAP 120,and/or the risk applications 126 could each be implemented on their ownrespective memories 114 and/or processors 112 or alternatively multipleof the components could be implemented on particular memories and/orprocessors (e.g., two of or more of the components could be stored onthe same memory device and executed On the same processor).

The processor(s) 112 can be a general purpose or specific purposeprocessor, an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), one ormore field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), a group of processingcomponents, or other suitable processing components. The processor(s)112 may be configured to execute computer code and/or instructionsstored in the memories 114 or received from other computer readablemedia (e.g., CDROM, network storage, a remote server, etc.).

The memories 114 can include one or more devices (e.g. memory units,memory devices, storage devices. etc.) for storing data and/or computercode for completing and/or facilitating the various processes describedin the present disclosure. The memories 114 can include random accessmemory (RAM), read-only memory (ROW, hard drive storage, temporarystorage, non-volatile memory, flash memory, optical memory, or any othersuitable memory for storing software objects and/or computerinstructions. The memories 114 can include database components, objectcode, components, script components, or any other type of informationstructure for supporting the various activities and informationstructures described in the present disclosure. The memories 114 can becommunicably connected to the processor(s) 112 and can include computercode for executing (e.g., by the processor(s) 112) one or more processesdescribed herein. The memories 114 can include multiple components(e.g., software modules, computer code, etc.) that can be performed bythe processor(s) 112 (e.g., executed by the processor(s) 112). The riskanalytics system 106 is shown to include a data ingestion service 116.The data ingestion service 116 can be configured to receive, collect,and/or pull threat data from the data sources 102 via the network 104.

The data ingestion service 116 can be configured to bring all relevantinformation on potential threats and/or actual threats into the riskanalytics system 106 (e.g., based on insights gained from historicalthreat data analysis or data received from data sources 102). The dataingestion service 116 can perform various transformations and/orenrichments to the incoming threats and forward the transformed and/orenriched threats to the next stages of the pipeline of the riskanalytics system 106, geofence service 118, RAP 120, and/or riskapplications 126. The data ingestion service 116 can be configuredreceive threats in a variety of different formats and standardize thethreats into a standard threat schema.

The risk analytics system 106 is shown to include the geofence service118. The geofence service 118 can be configured to receive the standardthreats from the data ingestion service 116 and determine which ofmultiple assets are affected by the threats. For example, assets, e.g.,buildings, cities, people, building equipment, etc. can each beassociated with a particular geofence. If a location of the standardthreat violates the geofence, i.e., is within the geofence, the geofenceservice 118 can generate a specific threat object for that asset. Inthis regard, a single threat can be duplicated multiple times based onthe number of assets that the threat affects. The geofence service 118can communicate with threat service 122. Threat service 122 can beconfigured to buffer the threats received from data ingestion service116 in queue or database, the threat database 124.

The standard threats can be provided by the geofence service 118 to theRAP 120. The RAP 120 can be configured to determine various risk scoresfor different assets and threats based on the standard threats. Forexample, for an asset, the RAP 120 can be configured to determine adynamic risk score which is based on one or multiple threats affectingthe asset. Furthermore, the RAP 120 can be configured to determine abaseline risk score for the asset which indicates what a normal dynamicrisk score for the asset would be. In some embodiments, the baselinerisk score is determined for particular threat categories. For example,the baseline risk score for a building, may be different for snow thanfor active shooters.

Risk analytics system 106 is shown to include the risk applications 126.The risk applications 126 can be configured to present risk informationto a user. For example, the risk applications 126 can be configured togenerate various risk interfaces and present the interfaces to a uservia the user devices IOS via network 104. The risk applications 126 canbe configured to receive the risk scores and/or other contextualinformation tier assets and/or threats and populate the user interfacesbased on the information from the RAP 120. The user interfaces asdescribed with reference to FIGS. 25-31 can be generated and/or managedby the risk applications 126.

The risk applications 126 are shown to, include a monitoring client 128and a risk dashboard 130. The risk dashboard 130 can provide a user witha high level view of risk across multiple geographic locations, e.g., ageographic risk dashboard. An example of a risk dashboard that the riskdashboard 130 can be configured to generate and mange is shown in FIG.30 and further risk dashboard interfaces are shown in FIGS. 31-33.Monitoring client 128 can be configured to present risk scores andcontextual information to a user for monitoring and/or responding tothreats of a building or campus. Examples of the interfaces that themonitoring client 128 can generate and/or mange are shown in FIGS.25-29.

The user devices 108 can include user interfaces configured to present auser with the interfaces generated by the risk applications 126 andprovide input to the risk applications 126 via the user interfaces. Userdevices 108 can include smartphones, tablets, desktop computers,laptops, and/or any other computing device that includes a userinterface, whether visual (screen), input (mouse, keyboard, touchscreen,microphone based voice command) or audio (speaker).

Referring now to FIG. 2, the data ingestion service 116 is shown ingreater detail, according to an exemplary embodiment. Data ingestionservice 116 is shown to include a data collector 230, ingestionoperators 212, and a scalable queue 222. The data collector 230 can beconfigured to receive, collect, and/or pull data (e.g., continuously orperiodically pull data) from the data sources 102. As shown, datasources 102 include a first data source 200, a second data source 202,and a third data source 204. The data collector 230 is shown to collecta threat in a first format 206, a threat in a second format 208, and athreat in a third format 210 from the sources 200-204 respectively.

Each of the threats 206-210 is in different schema and the scale ofmetric (e.g., severity and threat category schema) of the, threats206-210 may be different. For example, the severity levels of thethreats 206-210 can be on a 1-5 scale or on a 1-3 scale. Furthermore,the threats 206-210 can have different naming for the fields in theirdata schema even though they represent the same piece of informationlike different names for the same threat categories.

The ingestion operators 212 can be configured to perform processingoperations on the threats 206-210 to generate standard threats and putthe standard threats in scalable queue 222 before forwarding the threats224-228 to other services (e.g., the geofence service 118). Theingestion operators 212 are shown to include a standardize operator 214,an expiry time predictor 216, an NLP engine 218, and a cross-correlator220. The standardize operator 214 can be configured to convert theschema (e.g., severity scales, data storage formats, etc.) of thethreats 206 to a standard schema and generate corresponding standardthreats 224-228 (e.g., defined data objects with particular attributes).

Expiry time predictor 216 can be configured to generate, via varioustiming, models, how long the threats 206-210 will last, i.e., when thethreats 206-210 will expire. The expiry time may be added to thestandard threats 224-228 as a data element. NLP engine 218 can beconfigured to categorize the threats 206-210. Since the categoryincluded in each of threats 206-210 may be for a different schema, theNLP engine 218 can perform natural language processing on a categoryand/or summary text of the threats 206-210 to assign the threats to aparticular category. The assigned categories can be included in thethreats 224-228. The cross-correlator 220 can be configured to group thethreats 224-228. Since multiple sources 200-204 are generating thethreats 206-210, it is possible that two sources are reporting the sameincident. In this regard, the cross-correlator 220 can be configured toperform cross-correlation to group threats 224-228 that describe thesame incident so as not to generate duplicate threats.

Where available, a threat expiration time can be extracted by the expirytime predictor 216 from a threat. If the expiration time cannot beextracted from the threat the expiry time predictor 216 can beconfigured to use analytics performed on the historical threat data todetermine the threat expiration time. For example, a traffic incidentmay be expected to take a particular amount of time to be responded, andhandled by the local authorities given the severity, type and locationof the threat calculated periodically from similar historical incidentscan be used to determine the threat expiration time. If the threatexpiration time cannot be identified from the threat parameter database,a static or default threat expiration time can be used. The threatexpiration time for the threat and/or asset can be stored in the activethreats database 328.

Referring now to FIG. 3, a process 250 for ingesting data with the dataingestion service 116 is shown, according to an exemplary embodiment.The data ingestion service 116 can be configured to perform the process250. Furthermore, any computing device (e.g., the risk analytics system106) can be configured to perform the process 250.

In step 252, the data collector 230 can pull data from the data sources102. Data collector 230 can implement multiple processes in parallel topull data from the multiple data sources. In this regard, step 252 isshown to include steps 254, 256, and 258, each of the steps 254, 256,and 258 can include pulling data from a particular data source, e.g., afirst data source, a second data source, and a third data source, thedata sources 200-204,

In step 260, the standardize operator 214 can convert threats pulledfrom multiple data sources to standardized threats. More specifically,the standardize operator 214 can convert a first threat to the standardthreat 224, a second threat to the standard threat 226 and a thirdthreat to the standard threat 228. Each of the standard threatsconverted can be received from different data sources and/or the samedata source.

Different formats and data schemas might be used by the different datasources and thus each threat may, have a different schema in step 260,the standardize operator 214 can perform multiple operations to convertall the incoming threats to a standard threat objects, the standardthreats 224-228. The standardize operator 214 can perform one ormultiple (e.g., a series) of static mappings. For example, thestandardize operator 214 can adjusting the scales for severity levels ofthe threats using the same naming for the data fields that present inall the ingested threats like the summary, location info and category.The step 260 is shown to include multiple sub-steps convert first threat262, convert second threat 264, and convert third threat 266. The steps262-266 indicate the steps that the standardize operator 214 can perform(e.g., either in parallel or in sequence) to convert the threatsreceived in the steps 254-258 into the standard threats 224-228.

Part of the conversion of the step 260 into the standard threats 224-228may include identifying a category for each of the incoming threats, thecategory being added and or filled in the standard threats 224-228. Thecategories can be identified via the NIT engine 218. In this regard, thestandardize operator 214 can perform a call to the NLP engine 218 tocause the NLP engine 218 to identify a category for each of the threatsreceived in the step 252. In response to receiving the call to the step268 (and/or the original threats themselves), the NLP engine 218 canidentify a category for each of the incoming, threats.

In step 270, expiry time predictor 216 can predict an expiry time foreach of the standard threats 224-228. The expiry time may indicate howlong it will take a particular threat to expire, e.g., how long it takesfor the effects of an incident to be resolved and/or be eliminated. Thestep 270 can be made up of multiple processes (performed in parallel orperformed in series), i.e., the steps 274, 276, and 278, each stepincluding predicting an expiry time for each of the standard threats224-228. The expiry time predictor 216 may call an expiry time model 280(step 272) to determine the expiry time for each of the standard threats224-228. The expiry time model 280 can generate an expiry time for eachof the standard threats 224-228 based on the information of the standardthreats 224-228 (e.g., the category of the threat, a description of thethreat, a severity of the threat, etc.). The expiry time model 280 canbe a component of the expiry time predictor 216 or otherwise a componentof the data ingestion service 116.

The data ingestion service 116 can add the standard threats 224, 226,and 228 into the scalable queue 222. The scalable queue 222 could havedifferent implementations like Apache Kafka or Azure Eventhubs invarious embodiments. The queue 222 is designed in a way that, it caningest large volume of incoming messages and is able to scalehorizontally. In step 282, the cross-correlator 220 can group relatedthreats together so that threats that describe the same event arede-duplicated. The result of the cross-correlation by cross-correlator220 can be grouped threats 284 which can include groups of multiplethreats reported by different data sources each relating to the sameevent. The grouped threats 284 can be added back into the scalable queue222 and/or forwarded on to the geofence service 118. The scalable queue222 can be implemented via Apache Kafka and/or Azure Event-hubs and canbuffer the incoming traffic until the running processes e.g., the steps260, 270, 282) finish processing them.

Referring now to FIG. 4, the RAP 120 of FIG. 1 is shown in greaterdetail, according to an exemplary embodiment. The RAP 120 can beconfigured to receive threats, standard threat 300, from the geofenceservice 118. The standard threat can be enriched, with asset informationby asset information enricher 302 (e.g., asset information can be addedinto the standard threat 300 data object). The RAP 120 is shown toinclude the asset information enricher 302 and an asset service 304. Theasset service 304 is shown to include an asset database 306. The assetdatabase can include information indicating various different types ofassets buildings, people, cars, building equipment, etc.). Assetinformation enricher 302 can send a request for asset information for aparticular asset affected by the standard threat 300 to asset service304. Asset service 304 cm retrieve the asset information and provide theasset information to asset information enricher 302 for enriching thestandard threat 300. The asset database 306 can be anentity-relationship database e.g., the database described with referenceto U.S. patent application Ser. No. 16/048,052 filed Jul. 27, 2018, theentirety of which is incorporated by reference herein.

The result of the enrichment by the asset information enricher 302 isthe enriched threat 308. The enriched threat 308 can include anindication of a threat, an indication of an asset affected by thethreat, and contextual information of the asset and/or threat. The RAP120 lodes risk engine 310 and risk score enricher 312. Risk engine 310can be configured to generate a risk score (or scores) for the enrichedthreat 308. Risk engine 310 can be configured to generate a dynamic riskscore for the <enriched threat 308. The risk score enricher 312 cancause the dynamic risk can be included in the enriched threat 316generated based on the enriched threat 308.

Bach process manager 318 can implement particular processes that areconfigured to generate dynamic risk 332 and baseline risk 334 forpresentation in a user interface of risk applications 126. Batch processmanager 318 is shown to include risk decay manager 320, threatexpiration manager 322, and base risk updater 324. Each of thecomponents of batch process manager 318 can be implemented as a batchprocess and executed by the batch process manager 318. Risk decaymanager 320 can be configured to determine and/or decay a dynamic, riskscore of the enriched threat 316 based on a particular decay model(e.g., a linear decay model, an exponential decay model, a polynomialdecay model, etc.). In this regard, the risk decay manager 320 can causea value of the dynamic risk score to lower over time.

The batch process manager 318 is shown to communicate with databases,risk decay database 326, active threats database 328, and base riskdatabase 330. The risk decay database 326 can store risk decay modelsand/or associations between particular threats and/or assets andparticular decay models. The risk decay manager 320 can call the riskdecay database 326 to retrieve particular decay models and/or decayparameters based on an asset and/or threat. The active threats database328 can store an indication of an expiration time for the threatexpiration manager 322. In some embodiments, the active threats database328 stores models for determining a threat expiration time for a threatand/or asset. The base risk database 330 can store an indication of abase risk value for each of multiple different threat categories forparticular assets that the base risk updater 324 can be configured todetermine.

The threat expiration manager 322 can be configured to expire, e.g.,delete, a threat based on an expiration time. The expiration time can beincluded within the enriched threat 316 and can be generated by theexpiry time predictor 216 as described with reference to FIG. 2. Thebase risk updater 324 can be configured to generate the baseline risk334. The baseline risk 334 may be a baseline risk value indicative of anormal baseline risk value for a particular asset and/or a particularthreat category for that asset considering the historical data. Baselinerisk score provides a good metric to compare different neighborhoods andassets in terms of the “'norms” and trends for different threatcategories. For example, one neighborhood could have a higher baselinerisk score in crime compared to another but has much less;score forextreme weather calculated over years of historical data. Providing boththe dynamic risk 332 and the baseline risk 334 to the, risk applications126 can enable the risk applications 126 to generate user interfacesthat present both a real-time risk value, the dynamic risk 332, for aparticular asset but also a baseline risk value, the baseline risk 334,so that a user can understand contextually what the dynamic risk 332means for a particular asset since the user is able to compare thedynamic risk 332 to the baseline risk 334.

The risk decay manager 320 can be a mechanism for dynamically changing arisk score of an asset over time to more accurately represent the actualsignificance of an alarm event associated with an asset. The risk decaymanager 320 can be configured to apply a decay model that reduces riskscore over time. The parameters of the models can be learned by the riskdecay manager 320 from historical data making'the model adaptive towardsever-changing nature of threats. The decaying asset risk score can beused by the risk applications 116 to sort and filter threats occurringin relation to that asset. The order of the threats displayed (e.g., ina list) can change based on the risk decay performed by the risk decaymanager 320.

The risk decay manager 320 can determine a decay model based the type ofthreat. The risk decay manager 320 can be implemented in the RAP 120and/or in the risk applications 126. Decay models define how the riskchanges over time and can be tuned for specific applications. Examplesof decay models can be exponential decay models, polynomial decaymodels, and linear decay models. Examples are shown in FIGS. 23-24. Thethreat may include a risk score determined for the asset by the riskengine 310. The risk score and/or the threat can be stored in the riskdatabase 314. Using the identified decay model and threat expirationtime the risk decay manager 320 can be configured to update the riskscore by decaying the risk score in this way, the risk score isperiodically reduced according to the decay model until the contributingthreats are closed.

Using the polynomial decay model facilitates a dynamic decay that can beadapted for particular situations. For example, the polynomial couldincorporate a factor to account for the time of day that could changethe decay curve for night time events. The polynomial model alsocaptures the natural progress of the risk in most scenarios by a slowdecay at the beginning of the curve then a fast decay when approachingthe estimated threat expiration time for that threat. This behavior isobserved in many threats that reflect how the situation is handled afterfirst responders are at the scene. The slope of the curve isconfigurable for each type of threats to best match the natural dynamicof that threat in specific. The decay models can be automaticallyselected for different assets, asset types, and threat categories.

Using the decayed risk score and/or other risk scores for other assets,the risk applications 126 can sort and/or filter the threats for displayon a user interface. In this regard, one threat may immediately rise tothe top, of a threat list but over time fall down the threat list due tothe decay determined by the risk decay manager 320. An interface couldinclude selectable monitoring zones and threat events. Each threat eventmay have a type, a date, a time, an identifier (ID) number, an alarmlocation, and a risk score. The risk score of the event is the riskscore associated with the asset under threat. The threats can be sortedby multiple properties including risk scores.

The decay process performed by the risk decay manager 320 can continueuntil the risk score returns to the baseline asset risk score or theestimated duration is reached. Additionally, the risk of a specificthreat can be eliminated if such a notification is received from theoriginal event source. For example, a weather update notifying that thetornado has stopped. The risk score can also be updated by accessingdata feeds from external sources. For example, the tornado severityclassification is upgraded by another weather service (or multiplesources). The risk score will change and evolve to reflect the actualrisk of the event. The result of a risk decay is a more realistic andreflective of how risk scores should evolve.

Referring now to FIG. 5, a mapping 500 is shown for two exemplary threatcategories, category of a data source 504 and categories of a datasource 506 into categories of master list 502. Mapping between threatcategories to the master threat list can be supported by the threatingestion service 116. In some embodiments, there is a set of definedthreats that the system 106 is configured to protect assets against.This set of known threat list is the master list 502 that the system 106can be configured to recognize and ingest into the pipeline. The masterthreat list 502 supported by the system 106 can be updated and/orgenerated based on vulnerabilities of the assets of a particularbuilding and/or site.

The type of threats might be very different from one asset to another.The master list 502 can act as a union of all the threats that mightimpact any, of the assets of the building and/or the site. Withreference to FIGS. 17-18, risk calculation, the TVC model, and the VTmatrix, are described. In this regard, the mapping shown in FIG. 5 canbe implemented in the risk calculation as described elsewhere herein. Sohewing the type of the threat coming into the pipeline may be importantfor the risk calculation that will happen later in the pipeline sinceasset vulnerabilities depend on threat category.

Many data sources provide the category and sub-category informationabout the reported threats. In some cases there might be a staticmapping between those threats and the master threat list 502. However, adirect static mapping might not exist for all the categories. In FIG. 5,there are two data sources, the data source 504 and the data source 506for reporting crime and security related threats. The data source 504two categories of security criminal activity and drugs and the datasource 506 has a category for crime that includes police activity andshootings. However the master list 502 supported in the system that hasbeen identified in this scenario includes much more detailedsub-categories for crime,

It can be seen that there is a static mapping for some categories andsub-categories but for example for criminal activity there is no directmapping to any of the sub-categories on the master list. To be able toaccurately identify the sub-category of the crime discussed in thethreat summary, the NLP engine 218 can he configured to process thetextual summary of the threat to find the closest sub-category on themaster list that will be a good representation of the topic for thatthreat.

Referring now to FIG. 6, the NLP engine 218 as described with referenceto FIG. 2 is shown in greater detail, according to an exemplaryembodiment. The NLP engine 218 can include a RESTful interface (the webserver 602, the WSGI server 604, and the WSGI application 606) and aclassification model 608. The NLP engine 218 can be configured tocategorize a threat into the standard categories supported by, thesystem (e.g., the master list 502 as described with reference to FIG.5). The service can be made up of an Application Programming Interface(API) layer on top of a machine learning model that represent theclassifier trained to understand the standard categories.

The process 600 can be the operation performed by the standardizeoperator 214 and/or a message (an HTTP request) sent from thestandardize operator 214 to the NLP engine 218 to get the threatcategory for the new incoming threats. The standardize operator 214 cantalk to a high-performance web server, the web server 602, that can beconfigured to work as a reverse proxy relaying; all the incomingrequests to the underlying WSGI server 604.

It is the reverse proxy implemented via the web server 602 that exposesthe NLP engine 218 to the outside world (e.g., the standardize operator214). This provides solid security and scalability built-into the NLPengine 218. The web server 602 can be different in different embodimentsbut can be Nginx web servers and/or Apache web servers. The WSGI server604 can be a scalable server that can process requests in parallel.There are many different options for WSGI servers. For example, the WSGIserver 604 can be a Gunicorn server. The WSGI server 604 can beconfigured to communicate with the underlying WSGI application 606 inorder to do the calculations and return the results of theclassification. The classification model 608 can be a Machine Learningmodel that is used by the WSGI application 606 to do the categorizationof the threats,

Referring now to FIG. 7, a process 700 for generating the classificationmodel 608 via the NLP engine 218 is shown, according to an exemplaryembodiment. The process 700 illustrates supervised methods forgenerating the classification model 608. However, in some embodiments,unsupervised methods can be performed to generate the classificationmodel 608. The risk analytics system 106, more specifically, the dataingestion service 116 and/or the threats service 122 can be configuredto perform the process 700. Furthermore, any computing device asdescribed herein can be configured to perform the process 700.

In step 702, the threats service 122 can store historical threats cominginto the system 106 in the threat database 124. All the threats can beingested and stored, for analytics by the threats service 122. Theingested historical threat data stored in the threat database 124 can beutilized to develop a language model,

In step 704, the NLP engine 218 can perform pre-processing on the storedthreats. Pre-processing can include the initial steps in the NLPpipeline. The text summary of the threats coming in might include a lotof noise, links, and characters that do not have any significant meaningfor the purpose of risk modeling. In this step, the NLP engine 218 canremove the links, text words or phrases which are too short or too long,and/or the stop words along with the special characters (e.g., “&,” “!,”etc.)

In step 706, after filtering out some of the threats in thepre-processing step 704, the NLP engine 21 can label a small portion ofthe threats with the corresponding standard categories that the systemsupports, e.g., the categories as shown in the master list 502 of FIG.2. The labeling step 706 can include requirements in order to make surehigh quality data is generated for training the classification model608. The requirements can include that threats be reviewed by a human tocorrectly identify the right category far that threat. The requirementscan include that only the threats that clearly fall in that categoryneed to be labeled otherwise they are skipped. Furthermore, labeling canbe done by multiple users to avoid bias and personal opinions andminimize human errors. The requirements can include that multiplecategories can be applied to a single, threat. For example if there is“police activity” and “drugs” on the master threat list 502 then theyboth might apply to the incidents that report police presence at a drugrelated bust. In this regard, the NLP engine 218 can handle multiplelabels for each threat.

The requirements can further include having good coverage on all thecategories on the list of the threats that are picked from thehistorical threat store should be distributed among all the categories.For example, there may need to be example labelled threats in everycategory. A minimum 20 examples in each category may be required tocover all the categories in the model. Furthermore, considering thepreceding requirement, the distribution of the threats that are pickedup for labeling should not disturb the natural frequency of threats incategories drastically. This means that the ingested data by nature hasmore threats on crime category than weather incidents for example, thesampling strategy can respect this bias and have more samples in crimecategory picked for labeling.

In step 708, after the labeling is performed in the step 706, n-gramscan be extracted from the raw text of the labeled threats by the NLPengine 218. Going beyond bigrams may have has little to no value addedfor the increased complexity of the model. In this regard, the grams maybe limited to unigrams and bigrams. Examples of unigrams and bigrams maybe specific highly occurring words for word groups. For example, bigrams(2-grams) could be “Police Shooting,” “Gas Fire,” and “Armed Robbery”while examples of unigrams (1-grams) can be “Police,” “Fire,” and“Robbery.”

In step 710, the NLP engine 218 can vectorize the extracted n-grams(e.g., the unigrams and bigrams). The extracted n-grams can bevectorized in a high-dimensional vector space. Vectoring the n-gramsenables the NLP engine 218 to work with numbers instead of words. TheNLP engine 218 can be configured to utilize bag of words and/orcount-vectorizer to vectorize the n-grams. Vectorizing may indicate thefrequency at which particular words occur, in the example of bag-ofwords vectorization, a bag-of-words data structure could be,

BoW={“Fire”: 40, “Shooting”20, “Rain” 3, “Heavy Rain”2};

which indicates that the unigrams “Fire,” “Shooting,” and “Rain”occurred 40, 20, and 3 times respectively and the bigram “Heavy Rain”occurred twice.

In some embodiments the class imbalance in the data might be too big toignore. In response to detecting a class imbalance, the NLP engine 218can perform, in step 712, over-sampling of the minority classes and/orunder-sampling of majority classes. The NLP engine 218 can performresampling (over-sampling and/or under-sampling) based on theImbalanced-learn Python library.

in some cases, the number of features for the classifier is very large.Not all the features have the same level of importance in training amodel. The features that are not strongly relevant to the classificationcan be removed by the NLP engine 218 with minimal impact on the accuracyof the classification model 608. For this reason, in step 714, the NLPengine 218 can select the most importance features for classification.The NLP engine 218 can be configured to perform a statistical relevancetests like χ² (Chi-Squared) test can be used as a measure of importanceof a feature. Scikit-learn library for Python can be implemented by theNLP engine 218 to perform the selection. In some embodiments, the NLPengine 218 can select a predefined number (e.g., the top 10 percent) ofthe most importance features. Selected features can be particularn-grams that are important.

In step 716, the NLP engine 218 can split the data set of the selectedfeatures of the step 714 into a test data set 720 and a training dataset 718. The ratio between test and training data might be different indifferent applications. In some embodiments, the training data set 718is larger than the testing data set 720. In some embodiments, thetraining data set includes 80% of the data set while the testing dataset includes 20% of the data set.

The NLP engine 218 can train the classification model 608 using thetraining data set 718 in step 722. The classification model 608 can beone or multiple different classifiers. The classification model 608 canbe a Naïve Bayes and/or Random Forrest model, Naïve Bayes may be not asaccurate as Random Forest but it has the speed advantage compared toRandom Forest. Depending on the size of the, data and number offeatures, Naïve Bayes can be much faster to train compared to RandomForest, However, if pure accuracy is the ultimate goal Random Forest maybe the best choice.

In step 724, the testing data set 720 can be used by the NLP engine 218to test the trained classification model 608 and make sure theclassification model 608 provides satisfactory performance. Precisionand Recall per class needs to be calculated to evaluate the model. Ifthe trained classification model 608 is successfully tested (e.g., hasan accuracy above a predefined accumy level), the NLP engine 218establishes the classification model 608 by deploying the classificationmodel 608 on the WSGI application 606 within in the NLP engine 218 (step726). If the classification model 608 is not good enough (has anaccuracy below the predefined accuracy level), the training processneeds to repeat with more data, different features and different modelparameters until the satisfactory results are achieved (e.g., repeat theprocess 700 again any number of times).

Referring now to FIG. 8, an interface 800 for a data labeling tool isshown, according to an exemplary embodiment. The data labeling tool canbe used to perform the step 706 of the process 700. Furthermore, thedata labeling tool can meet all of the requirements for the step 706.The data labeling tool is user friendly tool that can be used to labeldata for developing supervised machine learning models, e.g., theclassification model 608.

The labeling tool can be a component connected to the threats service1,22 and can be configured to load the threats stored in the threatdatabase 124, apply the pre-processing to filter out the noisy threatsand then provides the threats one by one to the user via the interface800 to generate labels for each threat based on user input indicatingthe labels. In interface 800, a potential threat that has been reportedfrom social media (e.g., TWITTER, FACEBOOK, etc.) has been loaded andthe possible labels for that tweet are suggested as options to be pickedfor the user in element 802. The user selects all the labels of theelement 802 that apply to that threat and then accepts the labels bypressing the checkmark button 808. This causes the selected labels to bemoved from element 802 to a list in element 804. In case the threatloaded is not suitable for labeling (e.g., it does not have clearrelevance to the threat categories) the user can skip that threat and goto the next threat by pressing the “x” button 806. The buttons 806 and808 can be included in the interface 800 to satisfy the requirement thatonly threats that clearly fall into a category are labeled otherwisethey are skipped.

The interface 800 is shown to include demo mode element 810 which caninclude text “Demo Mode” and “End Demo Mode.” The demo mode enables newusers to get familiar with the labeling tool without generatinginaccurate labels on the system. This, feature helps the Users toquickly interact with the tool and feel confident about what they willbe doing with the tool before the actual labeling begins.

The master list of all, the threats that are supported by the system,e.g., the master list 502 as described with reference to FIG. 5, can belong depending on the assets and their vulnerabilities that the system106 is monitoring against. It can be very tedious and unpractical topopulate the page with all the threats to Choose from for the user ofthe tool. In this regard, the tool can be configured to automaticallyrecommend potential categories for each threat, e.g., a subset of thetotal master list 502 and therefore the list presented to the user ismuch shorter than the master list 502. The recommendations are presentedto the user based, on a cosine similarity analysis of sentenceembeddings as described with reference to FIG. 10.

Referring now to FIG. 9, an interface 900 for a login page of thelabeling tool is shown, according to an exemplary embodiment. Theinterface 900 can satisfy the requirement for data labeling thatlabeling must be done by multiple users to avoid bias and personalopinions, minimizing error. This login interface 900 ensures an extrasecurity layer for the labeling tool and also making sure that multipleusers and sessions work with the labeling tool. The user can enter theiruser name via the input box 902 and press the login button 904 to loginwith the user name. In some embodiments, the labeling tool determines,based on the users that have logged in and/or based on how many labelsthe particular user has performed, whether an appropriate diversity ofuser inputs has been received. In some embodiments, all the labelingactivities are tied to the user that has performed the labeling. In thisregard, if a particular user is identified as not properly labeling thethreats, those labeling activities tied to the identified user can beremoved from the dataset used to train the classification model 608.

Referring now to FIG. 10, a process 1000 is shown for performing, asimilarity analysis of threats for threat categories for use in thelabeling tool as described with reference to FIGS. 8-9 is shown,according to an exemplary embodiment. The NLP engine 218 and/oralternatively the labeling tool can be configured to perform the process1000. The similarity analysis of the process 1000 can be used todetermine how similar two words or sentences are. With the recentdevelopments in Word Embeddings there have been efficient algorithmsdeveloped to build language models out of any large corpus. Word2Vec andGloVe are the two algorithms to obtain high-dimensional vectorrepresentations of words in a corpus. The developed vector models aredifferent for different texts because of the differences in the contextand the type of expressions used specifically in that context. Forexample, the type of the words and expressions frequently used in ontwitter are very different than the language used in a newspaper or abook. For the purpose of risk, and threat modeling the language is veryspecific to the security operations and the specific models describedherein can be used to collect and analyze the threats.

In step 1002, the threat service 122 stores received and ingestedthreat; in the threat database 124, e.g., historical threats. The step1002 may be the same as and/or similar to the step 702 as described withreference to FIG. 7. In step 1004, the stored threats can bepre-processed by the NLP engine 218. In some embodiments, thepre-processing includes removing stop words, periods, etc. The step 1004can be the same as and/or similar to the step 704 as described withreference to FIG. 7.

The stored threats, in step 1006, can be vectorized by the NLP engine218. For example, the stored threats can be fed by the NLP engine 218into the Word2Vec. The step 1006 can be the same and/or similar to thestep 710 as described with reference to FIG. 7. Word2Vec can generate ahigh-dimensional vector representations for the words used in thecontext of threats. One implementation of Word2Vec may be performed withthe Python module Gensim.

The word vectors that result from perform the step 1006 can be used toobtain sentence embeddings by the NIP engine 218 in step 1010. Thereare,multiple ways (e.g., calculating averages) to determine a sentenceembedding. In some embodiments, the sentence embedding is determinedaccording to the process described in Y. L. T. M. Sanjeev Arora, “ASIMPLE BUT TOUGH-TO-BEAT BASELINE FOR SENTENCE Embeddings,” inInternational Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), Toulon,France, 2017.

In step 1011, a user can select one or multiple categories for a threatusing the labeling tool. Based on the sentence embeddings of the step1010 and the selected categories of the step 1018, the NLP engine 218can, in step 1012 perform a similarity analysis (e.g., a cosinesimilarity analysis) to determine and assign (in step 1014) a score foreach of the categories for each of the threats. For example, each threatcan include a score for each of the categories.

In step 1018, the labeling tool can use the similarity score to filterwhich labels are recommended to a user for confirming which labels areappropriate for particular threats (e.g., suggest categories with ascore above a predefined amount and/or select a predefined number of thehighest scored categories). After the initial labels are put on somedata that labeled data (the step 1011) that is used to calculate thesimilarity of those labels to the new coming threats. The most relevantlabels are shown to the user and the rest of the categories are droppedfrom the list. This helps the user to be able to quickly identify thepotential labels without getting inundated with all the possible labels.In step 1020, the NLP engine 218 can select the category and/orcategories for a particular threat based on, the scores (e.g., selectthe highest score). Using the similarity score to select the label for athreat can be used as an alternative and/or together with theclassification model 608.

Referring now to FIG. 11, a process 1100 is shown, for training theexpiry time model 280 according to an exemplary embodiment. The expirytime predictor 216 and/or any other computing system as described hereincan be configured to perform the process 1100. Threats can be expiredafter their immediate impact has been eliminated. For example, a trafficaccident might have been reported by one of the data sources and thenpolice arrive at the location of the traffic accident and deal with thesituation and after few hours everything is back to normal. In thesystem 106, an increase in the risk score associated with that incidentmay be seen since the risk score may cause some delays in thetransportation to one or more facilities. However, after it iscompleted, the system 106 can update the risk score and then remove thatthreat from the list of active threats.

Many data sources send out updates about the threats as they develop.After the incident has been closed, the data sources set the status ofthat threat to dosed. This information is sometimes sent Out as updates(push model) and some other times, an explicit call is required to getthe status updates is needed. Depending on the data source API theimplementation of the process that pulls data can be different. However,in the threat database 124 of the system 106 the records of the timeswhen an incident was first reported and the time that it was closed orupdated. Using that historical data on the incidents that are monitored,the expiry time predictor 216 can build a machine learning model thatcan be used for predicting the expiry time of the incidents the momentthey come into the pipeline. This predicted expiry time can he used bythe risk decay manager 320 and can enable users to have forecastingcapability on the incidents that come in by knowing approximately howlong it will take to be closed or dealt with.

In step 1102, threats are stored as historical data in the threatdatabase 124 by the threat service 122. In step 1104, the expiry timepredictor 216 can prepare the stored threats. Cleaning the storedthreats can include removing the data that has missing fields, removingthe data that has zero or negative expiry time. The expiry time iscalculated by subtracting the time the threat was reported and the timethat the threat was closed/updated. In practical applications there arealways cases in which the data provided includes some inaccuracies andmistakes. The expiry time predictor 216 can verify that those areremoved before using that data for training.

Other than the data that include fields that are inaccurate, there aresome extreme cases that are considered outliers and those usually do notrepresent the trends and insights about the data. So by removing thoseoutliers in the, step 1106 by the expiry, time predictor 216 it can beensured that high quality data is used in training. A simple example forthis type of data can be a false incident report. If there was a bombthreat reported by mistake but after few seconds it was removed orclosed by the analyst who posted it to avoid the confusion. Those typesof threats will appear with a very short expiry time which is veryunusual to the other valid incidents. Thus those threats are removed bythe expiry time predictor 216 is removed from further processing. Thetechniques used can be Modified Z-Score and Inter Quartile Range (IQR).

Regarding expiry time, the output can range from very small positivevalues (minutes) to very large values e.g., days. This can correspond toa variety of factors for example the type of the threat. Minor trafficincidents might take only a few minutes to be cleared but a major wildfire might take days to be dealt with. In order to build a model thatpredicts the exact time of the expiration, there may need to, be a limiton the possible classes that a threat can belong to. By defining a setof labels based on the percentile of the expiry time the expiry timepredictor 216 can label the data in step 1108. This can create many(e.g., hundreds) different type of classes that each threat can belongto in some applications there might be less and in some there might bemore classes defined. For example, a 10 class labeling distribution(e.g., a histogram analysis of expiry time) is shown in FIG. 12.

After applying the labels the data can be split in step 1110 by theexpiry time predictor 216 between the training data set 1112 and thetest dataset 1116. The training data set 1112 can be used to train theexpiry time classifier model using supervised machine learningalgorithms like Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and so on in step1114. The test dataset 1116 can be used to test and validate theperformance of the expiry time classifier model in step 1118. Thisprocess repeated until an expiry time model with satisfactoryperformance is determined (step 1120).

Referring now to FIG. 12, a chart 1200 of a distribution of threats indifferent classes is shown, according to an exemplary embodiment, inchart 1200, 10 classes are defined based on expiry time range. Forexample the first class represents all the threats that have been closedless than two hours. The second class are the threats expired between 2and 3 hours and the last classes shows the threats that expired between64 and 100 hours,

Referring now to FIG. 13, the cross-correlator 220 is shown in greaterdetail, according to an exemplary embodiment. Having multiple datasources, the data sources 200-204, reporting on the incidents adds a lotof benefits on the coverage and response time. However, it also has thepotential of having so many duplicate or related threats coming frommultiple different channels. If the threats are not properly groupedtogether each incident will be treated as a new threat and will causenoise and a poor user experience for the users of the system 106. Thecross-correlator 220 can be configured to identifying the relatedthreats reported from different data sources and then grouping thethreats together. This creates a unique opportunity to the applicationsand presentation layers to show one incident in a timeline and all thereported threats associated with that incident even if they werereported from different data sources. The cross-correlator 220 asdescribed with reference to FIG. 13 can be scalable and can beimplemented for various numbers of data sources.

Threats are reported from multiple different data sources 200-204.Although the threats are reported from three different data sources, anynumber of data sources can be used. The threats reported by the datasources 200-204 can be buffered in the scalable queue 222 a. The threatsof the data sources 200-204 are shown as different shapes to representdifferent threats. The circle threats reported by the data sources200-204 each represent the same incident. Similarly the start shapedthreats reported by the data sources 200 and 202 represent the samethreat and likewise the mangle threats reported by the data sources 202and 204 represents the same threat.

The cross-correlator 220 is shown to include an event processor 1310.The event processor 1310 can be configured to read the threats from thescalable queue 222 a and processes the incoming threats in real-time andstore them in scalable queue 222 b. The event processor 1310 can beconfigured to implement an instance of in-memory cache to store the mostrecent threats. The cache provides high speed lookups and read/writecapability which is required to be able to processes thousands ofincoming threats reported from all the data sources. The windows of timeto keep the threats in the cache can be configurable. In someembodiments, the window can be six hours of time.

The event processor 1310 can be configured to group threats togetherbased on information of each of the threats. For example, the eventprocessor 1310 can be configured to analyze a time that each threat wasreported, a location of each threat, and a category of each threat todetermine whether to group threats together or not. If all the time,location, and/or category match any of, the cached threats, thosethreats, can be grouped with the cached threats.

For the time and location;a certain amount of tolerance is defined (e.g.threats with a timestamp falling within a predefined length of time fromeach other can be considered occurring at the same time). The tolerancescan be different for different data, sources 200-204, different fordifferent types of threats, and/or based on the particularimplementation of the cross-correlator 220. The event processor 1310 canimplement a threat-specific tolerance for time and location. For exampleweather related threats may have a higher tolerance than trafficincidents. An earthquake might be reported by multiple sources more thana mile difference in the location. However, an urban traffic incidentshould have much less than quarter of a mile in difference.

Referring now to FIG. 14, a process 1400 is shown for grouping the samethreats together, according to an exemplary embodiment. Thecross-correlator 220 can be configured to perform the process 1400. Thesequence of events that happen after data is received from two separatedata sources; a first, data source and a second data source are shown inFIG. 14. Various components of the cross-correlator 220 are shown inFIG. 14, a connector 1402, an event huh 1404, a stream processor 1406,and a cache 1408 (e.g., a redis cache or any other type of cache) can beconfigured to perform the steps of the process 1400.

In step 1410, the connector 1402 can receive new threats from the datasources 200-204 and forward the new threats to an event hub 1404. Theevent hub 1404 can provide the new threats to the event processor 1310in step 1412. The event processor 1310 can identify, in step 1414, atype of each of the threats. The threats received by the event processor1310 may be standard threats that have been processed by the dataingestion service 116 and can include an indication of the identity ofeach of the threats.

In step 1416, the event processor 1310 can store the threats in thecache 1408. Particularly, the event processor 1310 can store a firstthreat of the first data source 200 in the cache 1408. In step 1418, theevent processor 1310 can retrieve the first threat from the cache 1408.The step 1418 can be performed periodically and/or in response toreceiving a second threat from the second data source 202. In step 1420,the event processor 1310 can compare the second threat with the firstthreat to determine if there is an association, i.e., both threatsdescribe the same incident. The event processor 1310 can determinewhether both threats describe the same threat The association can bedetermined by analyzing a time of occurrence of each threat. The eventprocessor 1310 can determine whether the threats occur within apredefined length of time from each other. The length of the predefinedtime can be dependent on the type of threats of each of the threats.

Furthermore, the event processor 1310 can analyze the location of thethreats. If the threats have a reported location that is within apredefined distance from each other, the threats can be considered tohave occurred at thee same location. For example, the predefineddistance can be a half mile, a mile, ten miles, etc. The distance can bedifferent for different types of threats. In response to determiningthat the type, time, and/or location of the first threat and the secondthreat are the same, the event processor 1310 can determine that thethreats are the same threat and should be associated and grouped.

In step 1422, the event processor 1310 can group the threats togetherinto a single threat. The grouped threats can be added back into thecache 1408 and/or forwarded on to other components of the system 106,e,g., the geofence service 118 in step 1426. The grouped threats can beagain compared to new threats so that two or more threats can be groupedtogether. In step 1424, cached threats can be dropped after a set periodof time occurs and the cache memory can be set to free memory. In someembodiments, each of the threats has an expiry time or otherwise thereis a set expiry time for the cache 1408. In response to the timeoccurring, the threat can be dropped from the queue.

Referring again to FIG. 1, the geofence service 118 can he configured toroute potential threats that are geographically in the close range ofassets. The geofence service 118 can process the incoming threats inreal-time. For every reported threat ingested by the data ingestionservice 116 and provided by the data ingestion service 116 to thegeofence service 118, the geofence service 118 can, for that threat forall assets are retrieved to be checked, to find if there is any assetthat has a geofence that has been violated by that threat. If nogeofence has been violated, the geofence service 118 can be configuredto drop the threat and not forward the threat to the risk analyticspipeline 120. Instead, the geofence service 118 can store the threat asa historical threat within the threat database 124. However, if therewas any asset that was close enough to the threat, i.e., the geofence ofthe asset was violated by the threat, the geofence service 118 can beconfigured to route the threat to the RAP 120 and/or store the threatwithin the threat database 124. In case of multiple assets impacted by athreat, the geofence service 118 can be configured to duplicate thethreat for each of the multiple assets and send the multiple threats tothe RAP 120 so that the RAP 120 can processes one threat per asset at atime.

The geofence settings can he different for each asset for differentthreats. Some threats are considered “far” if die distance between thethreat and the asset is more than 10 miles and some other threats to beconsidered “far” that setting might be 40 miles for example. Naturaldisasters usually have much larger range of impact than minor urbanincidents. That is why the geofences defined for assets can he perthreat type.

Referring now to FIG. 15, a process 1500 is shown for determiningwhether a threat affects a particular asset, according to an exemplaryembodiment:. The geofence service 118 can be configured to perform theprocess 1500. Furthermore, any computing device as described herein canbe configured to perform the process 1500. In step 1502, the geofenceservice 118 can:receive a threat. The threat can be received by thegeofence service 118 from the data ingestion service 116.

In step 1504, the geofence service 118 can retrieve a geofence for eachof a collection of assets based on the threat. The geofence service 118may store, or otherwise retrieve from a different data store, aparticular geofence for each of multiple assets. The geofence may beparticular to both the threat and the asset itself. For example, thegeofence may be a particular size and/or geometric based on a severityof the threat, a type of the threat, a type of the asset, and/or avulnerability of the asset to the particular threat. The geofence may bea particular geographic boundary surrounding each of the assets.

In step 1506, the geofence service 118 can determine whether a geofenceof each of the assets is violated by a location of the threat. Since thethreat can include an indication of location, the geofence service 118can determine whether each of the geofences of the assets is violated bythe location of the asset, i.e., whether the location of the threat iswithin the geofence of each of the assets. The result of step 1506, thedetermination whether each of the asset geofences are violated by thethreat, can cause the geofence service 118 to perform steps 1508-1516for each of the assets.

Considering a particular asset, if, in step 1508, there is adetermination by the geofence service 118 (step 1506) that the threatviolates the geofence of the particular asset, the process moves to step1510. If the geofence of the particular asset is not violated by thethreat, the process moves to step 1518. In step 1518, the geofenceservice 118 stores the threat. Storing the threat can include, causing,by the geofence service 118, the threats service 122 to store the threatin the threat database 124. The geofence service 118 may only performthe step 1518 if none of the assets have, a geofence violated by thethreat.

In step 1510, the geofence service 118 can determine the number ofgeofences of assets that are violated by the threat. If, more than oneasset has a geofence violated by the threat, step 1512, the geofencesere ice 118 can perform step 1415. If only one asset is associated witha geofence that has been violated, the process can proceed to the step1516.

In step 1514, the geofence service 118 can generate, separate threatsfor each of the assets that have a geofence violated by the threat. Forexample, each of the threats can be paired with a particular asset toform an asset-threat pairing. In step 1516, the geofence service 118 cansend all the threats, either original or generated in the step 1514, tothe RAP 120.

Referring now to FIG. 16, a drawing 1600 of a city including multiplebuilding assets and two different threats is shown, according to anexemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 16, asset 1602, asset 1604, asset1606, and asset 1608 are each associated with a respective geofence, thegeofences 1618, 1620, 1616, and 1614 respectively. The geofences1614-1620 are shown to be various sizes. The sizes of each of thegeofences can be associated with the type of the particular asset, thetype of a particular threat (e.g. the threat 1612 and/or the threat1610), severity of the threat, a type of the threat, and/or avulnerability of the asset to the threat. In some embodiments, wherethere are multiple threats, the geofence can depend in size based on acombination of the multiple threats.

Threat 1612 is shown to violate the geofences 1618, 1620, and 1616. Inthis regard, the geofence service 118 can replicate the threat 1612 sothat there is a corresponding threat for each of the assets 1602, 1604,and 1606. Furthermore, the threat 1610 is shown to violate a singlegeofence, the geofence 1614 but no other geofences. In this, regard, thegeofence service 118 does not, need to replicate the threat 1610 but canpair the threat 1610 with the asset 1608.

In some embodiments, the threats 1612 and/or 1610 can be associated withtheir own geofences. The geofences can be included within the threats1612 and or 1610 and can be extracted by the geofence service 118. Insome embodiments, the geofence service 118 can generate the geofencesfor the threats 1612 and/or 1610 based on a severity of the threatand/or a type of the threat. The geofence service 118 can determine whatasset geofences intersect with the threat geofences. The area ofintersection can be determine by the geofence service 118 and used todetermine whether the asset is affected by the threat and/or whether theseverity of the threat should be adjusted for the threat. In someembodiments, if the intersection area is greater than a predefinedamount (e.g., zero), the threat can be considered to violate thegeofence. However, based on the, area of the intersection, the severityof the geofence can, be adjusted. For example, particular areas can beassociated with particular severity levels and/or particular adjustmentsto an existing severity level so that the severity level of a threat canbe tailored specifically to each of the assets associated with geofencesthat the threat violates.

Referring again to FIG. 4, the RAP 120 is shown for performing riskanalytics on threats and/or assets. Processing and enrichments that areperformed after the enrichment performed by the geofence service 118 canbe performed by the RAP 120. The RAP 120 can be configured to generaterisk scores for the threats based on features of the threats and/orassets and/or relationships between the threats and/or the assets.

The risk engine 310 of the;RAP 120 can be configured to generate riskscores for the threats via a model. The model used by the risk engine310 can be based on Expected Utility Theory and formulated as anextended version of a Threat, Vulnerability and Cost (TVC) model, Therisk engine 310 can be configured to determine the risk scores on a perasset basis. The threats can all be decoupled per asset in theprocessing pipeline as well as the calculation of the risk. For example,if a protest or weather condition is created alerts towards multiplebuildings, separate alerts per building will be generated based on thegeofences of the building and the detected alert. This will insure thatthe RAP 120 can horizontally scale as the threats are introduced to thesystem. The model used by the risk engine 310 can be,

${{Risk}_{Asset}(t)} = {( {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}{{{S_{i}(t)} \times {T_{i}(t)} \times D_{i} \times {V_{i}( {{threat}_{i},{Asset}} )}}}^{p}} )^{\frac{1}{p}} \times C_{Asset} \times \rho \; (t)}$

where, T_(i)(t) is the probability of threat or attack threat_(i) attime t, S_(i) is the severity of the threat_(i) at time t,V_(i)(threat_(i), Asset) is the vulnerability index of that Assetagainst threat_i, G_(Asset) is, the cost or consequence of losing thatasset, p≥1 is a positive value associated with the p-norm, and D_(i) isthe weight corresponding on the geographical proximity (distance) of thethreat i to the asset. ρ(t) is the decay factor for the risk score.

There can be two sets of parameters in the formula for risk calculation.The first set of parameters can be from the threat and the second isabout the asset impacted by that threat. The list of the threatcategories can be different in different applications. But some of themost popular categories are Weather, Terrorism, Life/Safety,Access/Intrusion, Theft/Loss, Cybersecurity, and Facility. The model isnot limited to specific type of threats and can be updated as newsources of threats are introduced. There are certain threat parametersthat play an important role on the level of risk they potentially imposeon the assets.

Severity of the threat refers to the intensity of reported incidentsindependent of the impact on assets. Notice that other measures likegeographical distance will play a role on the risk besides the severity.However, severity is focused on the intensity of the threat itself Forexample in case of a hurricane its severity can be measured by thecategory level of the hurricane. It might not even be a major risk if itis too far from assets or if the assets are tightened with protectivemeasures.

One of the parameters in the threat is the probability of actuallythreat occurring (T_(i)(t)). This topic brings us to the concept ofpredictive and reactive risk. If the time in the risk formulation refersto a future time, that risk is considered to be predictive. To be ableto estimate or predict the risks in a future time, the system 106 shouldbe configured to predict the parameters involved in the calculationspecially the potential threats and their severity in a future time.Some data sources that report the threats include threats that areexpected to happen in future. Threats like planned protests, threats ofviolence or attacks and so on fall under the category of predictiverisk. Those predictive threats will be used to train ML models toestimate the validity of the threats. On the other hand, the threatsthat have already happened and reported fall under reactive risk.

Referring now to FIG. 17, a VT matrix 1700 is shown, according to anexemplary embodiment. Each asset might be vulnerable towards one ormultiple different threats. Studying the assets to understand thevulnerabilities and the threats impacting, the asset is one of the firstmajor tasks in the real implementation of a risk analytics project. Forexample, if it is assumed that different buildings are the assets, onemight find some buildings are by the water and they are vulnerabletowards flooding. But, another building might not have thisvulnerability because of the measures taken into account in theconstruction or basically the location of that building. The risk modelas described above takes into account the specific characteristics ofthe assets in terms of vulnerabilities against each of the threats thatare supported in the system. For practical implementations the VT matrix1700 can be developed and/or stored all assets.

The matrix will include all the threats that are supported in thesystem. VT matrix will be a n×m matrix for, m assets exposed to ndifferent threats. The values can be between 0-1 showing novulnerability to full vulnerability. In some embodiments this can befurther simplified to a binary matrix considering only values of 0and 1. But, in some other embodiments any range between [0,1] can beapplied.

Regardless of the imminent threat and its nature, the value of the assetis important in evaluating the risk to the owner. The asset valuebecomes more important when a company has multiple types of assets withdifferent functionality and responsibilities. Some of them might bestrategic and very valuable. But, others might be smaller and lessvaluable compared to the others. Asset assessment includes the assetcost estimation besides vulnerability assessment. The result of theasset value assessment is translated to a number between 1 to 10 in therisk model to represent the least to most valuable assets.

In any given point in time an asset might be exposed to multiplethreats. There might be heavy rain and major traffic accidents at thesame time. To be able to combine the effect of the threats theformulation includes a p-norm to combine the threats, p could be anypositive integer in the formula. Here, 2 and infinity are considered aspossible values. 2-norm might not be a good metric for analyzing themultiple sources of threats since it will decrease the impact of thehighest threats. ∞-norm can be a good or the best option, since itfocuses on the highest degree of the risk.

The calculated risk can corresponding to dynamic risk score. The riskscore can gradually decay until the threats are expired. ρ(t) can be thedecay factor that is multiplied to the risk score based on a decaymodel.

Referring now to FIG. 18A, the risk engine 310 is shown in greaterdetail, according to an exemplary embodiment. The risk engine 310 isshown to receive a request to enrich an asset with a risk score, message1802, and can generate and/or return a risk score in response to therequest, i.e., response 1804.

The risk engine 310 is shown to include a TVC model 1816. The TVC model1816 can be the TVC model as shown and described above. The risk engine310 can expose the TVC model 1816 to the outside world via an API. TheAPI can be a REST API. The API can provide four endpoints; a risk scoreendpoint 1808, a threat list endpoint 1810, a VT matrix retrieveendpoint 1812, and a VT matrix update endpoint 1814.

The risk score endpoint 1808 can be an endpoint used to return the riskscore for the incoming threats. At this stage of the pipeline thethreats are identified to be at the vicinity of at least one of theassets and also they are enriched with the asset details. The threatlist endpoint 1810 can retrieve the list of all the threats that arerecognized by the risk engine. The list is the master list of all thethreats from all the data sources that report threats to the system. TheVT matrix endpoints can be two endpoints here to retrieve and modify theVT matrix settings. The risk engine 310 is shown to include a threatlist 1818 and a VT matrix 1700. The threat list 1818 can, be a list ofall the threats that the risk engine 310 needs to processes. The VTmatrix 1700 can be a matrix of the vulnerability parameters for specificthreats, e.g., as shown in FIG. 17. The risk engine 310 can query the VTmatrix 1700 with an indication of a threat and an asset to retrieve thevulnerability parameter for the particular asset and threat.

Referring again to FIG. 4, RAP 120 is shown generating the dynamic risk332 and the baseline risk 334. The dynamic risk 332 can represent thereal-time activities and the possible risk on the assets. The baselinerisk 334 can provide au indication of the long-term risk scores for anasset or a geographical area. The baseline risk 334 reveals the trendsin the historical data. For example, the baseline risk 334 can he usedto analyze which assets or neighborhoods are exposed to naturaldisasters like Hurricanes or areas that are more crime prone. A goodcombination of the two scores provides a good understanding foranalyzing risk. The dynamic risk 332 can provide situational awarenesswhile the baseline risk 334 score can be used for analyzing long termtrends on an asset or neighborhood. Baseline risk is calculated by therunning batch processes and the dynamic risk is calculated by the riskengine.

Still referring to FIG. 4, RAP 120 is shown to include the risk decaymanager 320 and the threat expiration manager 322 which can beconfigured to decay risk scores over time and expire risk scores. Thedynamic risk 332 can keep track of all the active threats that have animpact on the assets in any given point in time. Many data sources onlyprovide information on the binary state of a threat that is reported.The threat can be “open” or “dosed.” There is no information on thepredicted duration of the threat to remain active before it is closed.The RAP 120 can be configured to develop machine learning models toenable predicting the expiry time for any threat (e.g., via the threatexpiration manager 322). The expected duration for any threat can beused by the RAP 120 to reflect this information to a security analyst byshowing the transition period to a closed state. This gradual decay canbe performed by the risk decay manager 320 by applying a decay modelthat suits the nature of that threat. FIGS. 21 and 22 provide anillustration of risk decay for three threats impacting an asset alongwith the dynamic risk score resulted from each threat with and withoutrisk decay.

Referring generally to FIGS. 18B-18F, systems and methods are shown fordynamically analyzing weather data to generate asset risk scores,according to various exemplary embodiments. Weather data can be used togenerate a risk score by analyzing and contextualizing weather data(e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed, snow fall, rain fall, etc.)and to dynamically model correlations between multiple weather threats,and/or between one or more weather threats, non-weather threats, and/orone or more other types of threats, and estimate weather and/ornon-weather related risks. In some implementations, the systems andmethods may determine anomalous weather conditions based on historicweather data,

The systems and methods discussed with reference to FIGS. 18B-18F cananalyze weather data and generate (or receive) weather threat events forextreme, environmental conditions. Extreme environmental conditions maybe conditions where an environmental value exceeds a predefined amountor are outside a predefined range (e.g., a high humidity, a high or lowtemperature, etc.). As an example, a temperature below 40 degreeFahrenheit (or 10 degrees Fahrenheit, 0 degrees Fahrenheit, −10 degreesFahrenheit, etc:), or above 130 degree Fahrenheit (or 100 degreesFahrenheit, 110 degrees Fahrenheit, 120 degrees Fahrenheit, etc.) can beconsidered an extreme temperature which may be dangerous for humans.Such a threat event can contribute to a high risk score. Similarly, windspeed higher than 30 miles per hour (mph) or 40 mph could also betreated by the systems and methods discussed herein as extreme anweather condition. Furthermore, snow fall or rain fall in an amountgreater than a predefined amount can be treated as an extreme weathercondition.

The systems discussed with reference to FIGS. 18B-18F can be configuredto analyze combinations of extreme weather events, i.e., weather eventsthat occur simultaneously. For example, the systems described withreference to FIGS. 18B-18F can be configured to determine, for a verylow temperature and a simultaneously occurring very high snow fall, arisk score greater than a risk score determined for the temperature orsnow fall individually. The systems and methods can determine, for two,three, or more simultaneous weather related threat events a compoundedthreat event score based on the correlations between the simultaneouslyoccurring threat events.

Furthermore, the systems and methods discussed herein can be configuredto analyze historical data to determine if there is a weather relatedcondition occurring that would not normally occur. A facility or citymay not be prepared to respond to an extreme weather related conditionif the extreme weather related condition rarely occurs at the facility.The systems and methods could determine whether a weather condition isabnormal based on analyzing historical data (e.g., historic temperatureranges, snow fall amounts, etc.) for a predefined amount of time in thepast (e.g., the past five years). If the weather condition is abnormal,a risk score can be generated based on the abnormal weather conditionsuch that the value of the risk score is increased due to theabnormality of the weather condition. For example, if it has not snowedin Atlanta in the month of October in past 5 years, and suddenly for aparticular year it does snow in Atlanta in October, the systems andmethods described herein could generate an increased risk score for thesnow fall since the city of Atlanta may not have the infrastructure(e.g., snow plows, response personnel, etc.) to handle the snow fall.

Furthermore, weather data can be enriched or cross-correlated withnon-weather related events. For example, if there is a major event at, abuilding (e.g., a party, a large, meeting, etc.) and there is a highsnow fall, a risk score for the building or and occupants of the eventcan be compounded to account for additional dangers which may occur dueto the high population being subjected to the weather event.

Referring more particularly to FIG. 18B, the RAP 120 is shown in greaterdetail for dynamically generating risk scores by adjusting risk scoreparameters 1826 based on weather data, according to an exemplaryembodiment. The RAP 120 is shown to receive standard threats from thegeofence service 118 (e.g., threats received from third party datasources, building data sources, etc. Based on the received data., theRAP 120 can be configured to generate risk scores for an asset based onweather related threat events and further based on correlations betweenmultiple simultaneously occurring weather based threat events and/orother non-weather related threat events.

The standard threats received from the'geofence service 118 can bethreats originally generated by the data sources data sources 102 andcan be weather threats such as high or low temperature, a hurricane, atornado, a snow storm, etc. and/or any other threat e.g., a riot, aprotest, etc. The data sources 102 can be a weather service data source(e.g., Accuweather).

In some embodiments, the data received by the RAP 120 is not directly athreat event. In some embodiments, the weather threat:generator 1822 cananalyze weather data to generate weather threat event. For example, theweather threat generator 2208 can determine if a temperature of receivedweather data is above or below predefined amounts (e.g., above 130degrees Fahrenheit or below 40 degrees Fahrenheit or 0 degreesFahrenheit). This may be indicative of an extreme temperature conditionand the weather threat generator 2208 can generate a weather threatevent. Similarly, if wind speed is above or below predefined amounts, anextreme wind speed threat event can be generated by the weather threatgenerator 1822. For example, if wind speed is above 30 or 40 miles perhour, an extreme high wind speed threat event can be generated.Similarly, if an air quality metric (e.g., an AQI) for a city or area isworse than (e.g., above) a predefined amount, an extreme high airquality index threat event can be generated.

The weather threat generator 1822 can be configured to analyze theweather threat event data and update parameters of the parameters 1826based on the received data via, a weather parameter updater 1824. Theweather parameter updater 1824 can be configured to analyze one ormultiple weather related threats together to determine whether onethreat event increases the severity of another threat event. Forexample, if one threat event indicates that there is heavy snowprecipitation and another threat event indicates that there areextremely low temperatures, a particular building asset (e,g. a person,a building, etc.) may be at a high risk. Therefore, the weather service1820 can increase a risk score of an asset by increasing the threatseverity parameter 1834 so that the threat severity of the heavyprecipitation increases to account for both heavy snow and extremely lowtemperatures.

The weather parameter updates 1824 can he configured to correlatevarious extreme weather related conditions together to determine whetherthe risk score should be compounded based on the presence of multipleextreme weather conditions. For example, if there is high temperatureand/or high humidity in addition to poor air quality, a high temperaturethreat event may have an increased risk score since the high humidityand/or poor air quality can increase the danger of the high temperature.Based on combinations of extreme weather conditions, the parameters1826, specifically the threat severity 1834 can be adjusted so that therisk score generated by the risk engine 310 is increased (e.g.,compounded) based on the presence of multiple threat events indicatingextreme weather conditions.

The risk engine 310 can, for each of multiple assets, be configured togenerate a risk score with the TVC model 1816. The risk engine 310 canbe configured to generate a risk score for the asset based on multiplesimultaneously occurring threat events. For each threat event for theasset, the risk engine 310 can be configured to generate a set of riskscores. The risk score enricher 312 can be configured to select the riskscore with the highest value from the set of risk scores and use thehighest valued risk scare as the asset risk score. The asset risk scorecan be provided to the risk applications 126 for presentation to an enduser. Based on the TVC model 1816 and parameters 1826, a risk score foreach threat event of a particular asset can be determined.

In some embodiments, the RAP 120 can be configured to analyze riskscores or other received data over a period of time (e.g., a year) toidentify trends in the asset risk scores, identify anomalies in thetrends, generate anew alarm (e.g., a synthetic event), determine riskscores averaging, and/or perform risk score forecasting (e.g.,predictions). Examples of analyzed risk scores are shown in FIGS.18D-18E.

Referring now to FIG. 18C, the RAP 120 is shown in greater detail toinclude a weather threat analyzer 1836 for analyzing risk scores forvarious weather threats, determined by the risk engine 310, according toan exemplary embodiment. In FIG. 18C, the risk engine 310 is shown togenerate multiple risk scores for a particular asset. The weather threatanalyzer 1836 is shown to receive the risk scores and use weathercorrelation rules 1838 to generate a final risk score, the final riskscore being based on the multiple risk scores and correlations betweenweather threat events (or other types of threat events). The weathercorrelation rules 1838 may indicate that particular threat events arerelated and thus a final risk score should be generated based on therisk scores for the threat events.

One rule for the weather correlation rules 1838 may be that for a hightemperature threat event associated with a score above a predefinedamount and a poor air quality threat event with a risk score above apredefined amount, a final risk score should be generated as a functionof both risk scores since high temperature and poor air quality mayresult in a dangerous situation. An example of a determination for afinal risk score based on two threat events for poor air quality andhigh temperature may be,

Final RiskScore=θ₁AssetRiskScore_(High Temperature)+θ₂AssetRiskScore_(Poor Air Quality)

θ₁ and θ₂ may be multipliers for determining that risk score based ontwo separate risk scores. For example, if the high temperature riskscore is 70 and the poor air quality risk score is 52 and the weightingparameters θ₁ and θ₂ are 0.8 and 0.6 respectively, a final risk scorecould be determined based on,

Final Risk Score=(0.8)(70)+(0.6)(52)=87.2

Each weighting parameter may be predefined such that combinations ofweather threat events result in particular final risk score values. Ageneralized equation for weighting risk scores together may be,

${{Final}\mspace{14mu} {Risk}\mspace{14mu} {Score}} = {{\sum\limits_{i}^{n}{\theta_{i}{AssetRiskScore}_{i}}} + {\theta_{i + 1}{{AssetRiskScore}_{i + 1}\mspace{20mu}.\;.\;.\mspace{20mu} \theta_{n}}{AssetRiskScore}_{n}}}$

In other embodiments, the risk score may be determined by applying amultiplier to a greatest of the component risk scores. For example, inthe example above, where the high temperature risk score is 70 and thepoor air quality risk score is 52, the overall risk score for the assetmay be determined by applying a multiplier (e.g., 1.2) to the highestcomponent score of 70 which may, for example, result in an overall riskscore of 84.

Referring now to FIG. 18D, the weather threat analyzer 1836 is shown ingreater detail to it a historical weather database 1838 and normalweather condition rules 1840 for determining how severely particularweather related threat events affect a building or area which may not beproperly prepared for responding to a particular weather related threatevent, according to an exemplary embodiment. As an example, a buildingor city may be located in an area where snow fall is not frequent. Ifthere is art abnormally high snow fall one winter for the city, the citymay not be properly prepared to handle the high, snow fall. For example,there may not be a sufficient number of snow plow trucks or snow removalpersonal for handling such a snow fall. Therefore, a risk score an abuilding or city can be adapted to indict to that anomalous weatherrelated threat events result in higher risk.

The weather threat analyzer 1836 can be configured to store risk scoresgenerated by the risk engine 310 in a historical weather database 1838.The historical weather database 1838 may store days, months, years,and/or decades of risk score data. The historical weather database 1838can be configured to store historical data for generated risk scores forhigh temperature threat events, risk scores for low temperature threatevents, risk scores for tornados, hurricanes, etc. The historicalweather database 1838 may indicate the frequency at which particularweather related threat events occur and their severity (e.g., their riskscore for particular assets). Furthermore, the, historical weatherdatabase 1838 can be configured to store raw environmental data. Forexample, the historical weather database 1838 could store an indicationof every snow fall in the past ten years and the amount of snow for eachMOW fall. Furthermore, the historical weather database 1838 can beconfigured to store temperature trends over the past two decades.

The weather threat analyzer 1836 can be configured to generate thenormal weather rules 1840 based on the historical threat events and/orthe raw environmental data stored by the historical, weather database1838. The weather threat analyzer 1836 can be configured to implementvarious forms of machine learning, e.g., neural networks, decisiontrees, regressions, Bayesian models, etc. to determine what a normalthreat event risk score would be for a particular threat event (e.g., arisk score range), a normal environmental condition (e.g., anenvironmental condition range), or other rules tar identify abnormalenvironmental conditions.

Based on the normal weather rules 1840, the weather threat analyzer 1836can compare new risk scores for threat events to the normal weatherrules 1840. For example, if a high temperature risk score is normallybetween 30-40 but a new risk score is at 70, this may indicate that asubstantially higher temperature than usually encountered by an asset ispresent. In this regard, the weather threat analyzer 1836 can increasethe final risk score to account for the fact that the asset may beexperiencing a weather related threat event that it is not prepared toendure. For example, for an area where tornados are not usually present,a threat event for a tornado may be 170. However, if based on thefrequency of tornado threat events and risk scores associated tornadosthe weather threat analyzer 1836 identities a threat event risk scorerange of 100-150, the weather threat analyzer 1836 may multiply thetornado threat event risk score by a multiplier to increase the valuefor the tornado threat event.

As another example, a weather threat event may be for a temperature at aparticular high value for a day, e.g., for 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Thenormal weather rules 2404 may indicate that normal temperatures for acity are between 30 degrees Fahrenheit and 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Thethreat event of 100 degrees Fahrenheit may be outside the range and,thus, may be an anomalous weather threat event.

In some embodiments, the multiplier may be selected based on a frequencyor value of the threat event. For example, a threat event may occur at arate of 0.1%. The lower that threat event rate, the higher themultiplier may be. Furthermore, if the threat event corresponds to avalue range, for example, temperature between 80 and 100 degreesFahrenheit is normal during summer months, a multiplier may be selectedbased on how high above the temperature range a current threat event isassociated with.

Referring now to FIG. 18E, a process 1842 is shown for determining arisk score based on a correlation between multiple simultaneouslyoccurring weather or non-weather related threat events, according to anexemplary embodiment. The analytics service RAP 120 can be configured toperform the process 1842. Furthermore, a processing circuit, e.g., aProcessor and/or memory, can be configured to perform the process 1842.Any computing device described herein can be configured to perform theprocess 1842.

In step 1844, the RAP 120 and/or the data ingestion service 116 canreceive weather threat data from a data source. The RAP 120 can receiveweather threat data from the local or third party data sources (e.g.,102) or can receive processed threats from the geofence service 118originally received and processed by the data ingestion service 116and/or the geofence service 118.

In step 1846, the RAP 120, the data ingestion service 116, and for thegeofence service 118 can generate multiple weather threat events basedon the received data of the step 1846. In some embodiments, the receiveddata is raw data, e.g., temperatures, wind speeds, etc. In someembodiments, the received data is a threat event. In some embodiments,the RAP 120, the data ingestion service 116, and/or the geofence service118 can generate one or more weather threat events and one or morenon-weather threat events based on the received data of the step 1844.For example, in some embodiments, the RAP 120, the data ingestionservice 116, and, or the geofence service 118 can generate one threatevent based on high temperatures and another threat event based on anunusually large population in or near a building or site, such as due toa conference or other gathering.

In the step 1848, the RAP 120 can generate risk scores for a particularbuilding asset (e.g., a building, a geographic area, an occupant of thebuilding, equipment within the building, etc.). The risk scores may be arisk score for a particular asset determined based on each of the threatevents received in the step 1844 or determined in the step 1846. In thisregard, if there is a high snowfall threat event and a low temperaturethreat event, two separate risk scores can be determined each for thetwo threat events. Similarly, if there is a high temperature threatevent and large population threat event, two separate risk scores can bedetermined for those events.

In the step 1850, the RAP 120 can determine a final risk score for thebuilding asset based on the risk scores determined in the step 1848 andbased on weather threat correlation rules. The correlation rules may bethe weather correlation rules 1838. The correlation rules 1838 mayindicate that particular weather related threat events should havecombined risk scores since both of the weather threat events togethermay indicate a situation more dangerous that the weather threat eventson their own. The correlation rules may indicate a particular weightingfactors such that a final risk score can be generated based on thevalues of the correlated weather related threats.

For example, in the step 2508, for multiple threat events, the analyticsservice 628 can use the Equation 6 to generate a final risk score. Insome embodiments, the analytics service 628 can use the weathercorrelation rules 2304 to determine a final risk score based on one ormore weather threat events and one or more non-weather threat events.For example, in some implementations, the analytics service 628 candetermine a final risk score based on a first risk score for a hightemperature threat event and a second risk score for a large populationthreat event, where die weather correlation rules 2304 may indicate thatthe final risk score should be higher than the individual risk scoresdue to the combination of the high temperature and the larger thannormal population leading to a higher level of risk.

In step 1852, the RAP 120 can provide the final risk score to a userinterface e.g., the risk applications 126. In some embodiments, therisk;score can be provided and, displayed in the user interfacedescribed with reference to FIGS. 27-33. Furthermore, the RAP 120 can,in step 1854, control various pieces of building equipment based on therisk score. In some embodiments, building equipment could control anenvironmental condition (e.g., temperature) to be unusually high if arisk score for a low temperature threat event is determined. In someembodiments, the building control equipment could issue warning oralerts (e.g., evacuate a building, take cover, move to a basement area,etc.).

Referring now to FIG. 18F, a process 1856 for using historical weatherdata to determine risk scores is shown, according to an exemplaryembodiment. The RAP 120 can be configured to perform the process 1856.Furthermore, a processing circuit, e.g., a processor and/or memory, canbe configured to perform the process 1856. Any computing devicedescribed herein, can be configured to perform the process 1856.

in step 1858, the RAP 120 can receive a first set of weather data. Thereceived first set of weather data can be weather threat events, ambienttemperatures, humidity values, air quality values, etc. In someembodiments, the stored data includes risk scores for various weatherthreat events that have occurred over a past decade. This first set ofdata can be stored in the historical weather database 1338 in step 2604.Over time, the analytics service 628 can collect and store the data inthe historical weather database, i.e., perform the steps 2402 and 2604iteratively for days, months, years, decades, etc.

In step 1862, based on the receive historical data, the RAP 120 cangenerate normal weather rules (e.g., the normal weather rules 1840). Thenormal weather rules may indicate the normal weather conditions of aparticular area. The rules may be a temperature range, a snowfall amountrange, etc. Furthermore, the ranges can be risk score ranges of thenormal value of a risk score for a particular weather threat event. If awinter temperature is between 50 degrees Fahrenheit and 65 degreesFahrenheit, a temperature of a threat event for 5 degrees Fahrenheit mayindicate an abnormally cold threat event. Furthermore, the rules mayindicate risk score ranges for various weather threat events. Forexample, air quality risk scores for air quality threat events may berisk scores between 30 and 40. An air quality risk score outside of therisk score range may indicate that an abnormal air quality condition ispresent.

In step 1864, the RAP 120 can receive a second set of weather threatdata from the data source. The second set of weather threat data may becurrent threat data for the data source. In step 2610, the analyticsservice 628 can generate an asset risk score based on the receivedsecond set of data. The analytics service 628 can generate the riskscore based on the building asset risk model 1812.

In step 1868, the RAP 120 can generate a final asset risk score based oncomparing the value of the asset risk score determined in the step 1864to the normal weather rules generated in the step 1862. If the rulesindicate that the weather threat event is abnormal, e.g., outside ausual temperature range, is a threat event that rarely occurs, etc., theRAP 120 can increase the asset risk score, in some embodiments, amultiplier is chosen or retrieved for increasing the risk score. Themultiplier can be multiplied with the risk score to generate the finalrisk score.

In some embodiments, the multiplier is dynamic, i.e., based on thethreat event, a multiplier can be generated and utilized to increase therisk score. For example, the frequency at which a threat event occurs(e.g., of the threat event rules), can determine the multiplier. Athreat event that occurs less than a predefined amount may be associatedwith a first multiplier. The process 1856 can proceed to 1870 and/or1872, both of which are described with further reference to FIG. 18E.

Referring now to FIG. 19, an interface 1900 is shown for managing the VTmatrix 1700, according to an exemplary embodiment. The interface 1900may be an administrator dashboard that can be configured to update thesettings of the VT matrix 1700. The ability to modify the settings ofthe VT matrix 1700 provides a unique, capability to the site managers tocontrol the risk ratings for their assets. The administrator for abuilding which is the asset in this case can change the settings bothindividually for each asset or make a bulk update based on the type ofthe assets. The VT matrix 1700 is assumed to be binary in this examplefor simplification. However, the values of the VT matrix 1700 can beanything between [0, 1] to show zero to full vulnerability of the assettowards a particular threat.

The interface 1900 includes selections to update the VT matrix 1700 inbulk and/or for a single asset via selecting option 1910. The interface1900 includes a select asset category dropdown 1902. The dropdown 1902allows a user to select all assets of a particular category. “Tactical”is shown as the selected category but any other category “Human,” “HVACEquipment,” and/or any other category can be included in the dropdown1902.

If the user is operating in a “Single Update” mode, particular assetscan be selected via dropdown 1904. The assets in the dropdown 1904 canbe numbered with an identifier, e.g., “1,” “2,” etc. and/or with a name“Building Lobby,” “Grand Hotel,” and/or any other asset. Particularthreat categories can be enabled for an asset and/or group of assets.For example, dropdown 1906 can provide a user with a list of threatcategories that are enabled for asset and/or asset group. A “DiseaseOutbreak” threat category is shown but any other type of threat“Shooting,” “Rain,” “Flooding,” etc. can be included in the list. If theuser interacts with the button 1912, the selected threat from the listcan be disabled and removed from the list.

The dropdown 1908 can allow a user to view threat categories (threatcategories not already in the dropdown 1906) to the dropdown 1908. If auser selects a particular threat category via the dropdown 1908 andinteracts with the button 1914, the threat category can be added to thelist of threats that the asset and/or assets are vulnerable to, e.g.,the selected threat is added to the dropdown 1906.

The user can enter a particular value for a threat and/or assetvulnerability. In response to interacting with the button 1916, thegroup of assets selected via the interface 1900 can be updated with theentered value. If the user interacts with the button 1918, theparticular singular asset selected by the user via the interface 1900can be updated. Based on the selection via option 1910, the button 1916and/or 1918 can be enabled and/or disabled to be interacted with (inbulk update mode the button 1916 can be enabled while in single updatemode the button 1918 can be updated).

Referring now to FIG. 20, a process 2000 is shown for performing riskdecay and threat expiry batch processing and risk updating for streamingnew threats, according to an exemplary embodiment. The RAP 120 can beconfigured to perform the process 2000; furthermore, the risk decaymanager 320, the threat expiration manager 322, and/or the base riskupdater 324 can be configured to perform the process 2000. The process2000 is shown to be divided into two sets of steps, the batch processingsteps, steps 2002-2024, 2032, and 2034, and the stream processing steps,steps 2025-2030.

The stream processing steps can update risk score in real-time. Afterthe threats are identified to bet the vicinity of an, asset by thegeofence service 118 they are enriched with the asset information. TheRAP 120 can check to make sure the threat is not expired by checking thecurrent time and the expected expiry time. If the event is expired itwill be persisted to the database. If it is not expired then it will besent to the risk engine along with all the other active threats for thatspecific asset to generate a risk score. The generated risk score willbe pushed to the real-time risk score topic 2020 to be consumed by themonitoring client 128 and the risk dashboard 130. It will also bepersisted to the database of historical risk scores.

The batch processing steps for risk decay and threat expiry cap behandled by a set of batch processes. The batch processes may be acontinuously running process that wakes up at a predefined interval(e.g., every 10 minutes) and retrieve all the assets from the database.Then for each asset all the active threats are queried. Active threatsare the threats with status set to “open”. The database used within therisk analytics pipeline stores the threats after the threats have beenenriched after the geofence service 118 and asset service 304 call.Therefore the threats are stored with, asset information and also onethreat per asset at a time. The current time will be compared with theexpiry time predicted value, if the current time exceeds the predictedexpiration time then the threat will be considered to be expired. Theexpired threat then can be pushed to the database for storage. If thethreat is not expired the risk score from that threat can be decayed.This can be done by loading the right decay model (polynomial functionfor example) and calculating the decay factor from the equations asdescribed with reference to FIGS. 23-24 by replacing the parameters t, αin the formula representing the time has passed from the beginning ofthe threat creation and the expected duration of the threat.

The risk score then can be multiplied by the decay factor. This willrepeat for all the active threats for that specific asset and then thehighest risk score will be selected as the risk score for that specificasset. This process can repeat for all the assets until all the riskscores are updated. The updated risk scores cab be pushed to a real-timerisk score topic (e.g., a Kafka topic) from which the monitoring client128 and the risk dashboard 130 fetch the risk score updates.

Baseline risk score is another batch processes that updates the baselinerisk every particular interval (e.g., every ten minutes). The baselinerisk score can be calculated by aggregating all the risk scoresgenerated for that asset over the historical period (the longer thebetter). The aggregate scores will be grouped per category and thosescores will be pushed to the historical/baseline topic to be consumed bythe applications.

Referring more particularly to FIG. 20, in step 2002, the RAP 120 wakesup at a predefined interval to perform the batch processing steps2004-2024, 2032, and/or 2034. In some embodiments, the batch processmanager 318 wakes up at the predefined interval to perform the batchprocessing steps. In some embodiments, the interval is a ten minuteinterval but can be, any period of time.

In step 2004, the RAP 120 can retrieve all assets from the assetdatabase 306. The assets can be all assets currently stored in the assetdatabase 306. In step 2006, based on the retrieved assets, threats foreach of the retrieved assets can be retrieved by the RAP 120. Forexample, the threats may be stored in the risk database 314 and thus theRAP 120 can retrieve the, threats for each asset from the risk database314. In some embodiments, only threats marked as “active” are retrievedby the RAP 120.

In step 2008, the RAP 120 can determine whether each of the activethreats retrieved in the step 2006 are expired. Each of the threatsretrieved in the step 2006 may be marked as active or closed. If thethreat is marked as active, the RAP 120 can determine if an expiry timeassociated, with the threat has passed. In step 2010, if the expiry timehas passed as determined in the step 2008, the process can continue tostep 2022 but if the expiry time has not passed, the process cancontinue to step 2012.

In step 2012, the RAP 120 can load a decay model for the threatsretrieved and determined to not be expired in the steps 2006-2010. Thedecay model can be specific to each of the threats and/or for each ofthe assets. In this regard, for a particular combination of a threat andan asset, a specific decay model can be selected. In this regard, theappropriate decay, modeling the response to an incident, for aparticular threat affecting a particular asset can be modeled.

In step 2014, based on the loaded decay models, decay factors can bedetermined for the, threats by the RAP 120. In step 2016, the decayfactors can be multiplied by the RAP 120 against the risk score of thethreats to generate a decayed risk score. In some embodiments, where aparticular asset is associated with multiple different threats, a riskscore can be determined and/or decayed for that asset. The RAP 120 cancompare the multiple risk scores against each other for the asset andselect the highest risk score in the step 2018. The highest risk Scoreselected in the step 2018 am be set to the real-time risk score topicand the risk applications 126 (the monitoring client 128 and/or the riskdashboard 130) can read the real-time risk score topic 2020 to retrievethe highest risk score for a particular asset and cause the highest riskscore to be displayed in a user interface.

If one or multiple threats have expired, determined in the steps2008-2010, the RAP 120 can update the status of the threat to “closed”to indicate that the threat is no longer active in step 2022. In step2024, the threat database 124 can he updated by a threat database (e.g.,the threat database 124) to include the new “closed” statuses for thethreats that have been determined to have been expired.

In step 2025, the RAP 120 can receive a new threat from one of the datasources 102. Since the threat may be new, the step 2026, 2028, and/or2030 can be performed as stream processing, i.e., in response toreceiving the new threat. Since the new threat may be associated with anexpiration time, the RAP 120 can determine, based on the expirationtime, whether the new threat has already expired. In response todetermining that the new threat has already expired, the process canproceed to'the step 2024. In response to determining that the new threathas not yet expired, the process can move to the step 2028.

In step 2028, the RAP 120 can retrieve all other active threats for theasset affected by the, new threat. In step 2030, based on the new threatand/or all the other active threats retrieved in the step 2028, the RAP120 can determine a risk score for the asset by calling the risk engine310 to determine the risk score for the new threat (or the other activethreats retrieve din the step 2028). The RAP 120 can compare the scoreof the new threat and the other threat scores and select the highestscore to be the score for the asset.

In step 2032, the RAP 120 can update a historical database of riskscores for the asset. The historical database of risk scores canindicate risk scores for the asset for a particular time and/or forparticular times over an interval (e.g., a window of time). In step2034, the historical risk scores of the historical database can be usedto calculate a baseline risk score. The baseline risk score can begenerated by averaging risk scores over a particular time period, therisk scores retrieved from the historical database. The result of thecalculation of the step 2034 may be the baseline risk 334. The baselinerisk 334 can be saved as an endpoint that the risk applications 126 canquery to retrieve the baseline risk 334 and present the baseline risk334 to a user via the monitoring client 128 and/or the risk dashboard130.

Referring now to FIG. 21-22, two charts illustrating risk scores for aparticular asset over time are shown, chart 2100 not including riskdecay and chart 2.200 including risk decay, according to an exemplaryembodiment. Three threats 2102, 2104, and 2106 and the dynamic riskscores for each threat are shown in the chart 2100 with no risk decaymodel being applied to the, risk scores. Asset sum risk 2108 is shown tobe a trend of all asset risk scores summed together. The asset peak risk2107 can track the highest risk score based on each of the threat assetrisk scores 2102-2106. Furthermore, the asset baseline risk 2110 isshown tracking the baseline (e.g., average over a predefined previoustime period) for the asset in some embodiments, the risk presented toend users and/or used to cause an automated workflow to occur is thepeak risk score and/or sum risk score.

As shown in the chart 2100, the threat risk scores 2102-2106 have abeginning time and an expiration time. However, the value for each ofthe threat risk scores 2102-2106 ends suddenly; there is no decay of thescore. In many instances, setting the risk score to zero for one of thethreat risk scores 2102-2106 does not properly model an incident sincethe risk score associated with the incident may decrease over time. Inthis regard, the risk decay as described elsewhere herein can be appliedto the risk scores to more accurately model how risk behaviors andincidents are responded to and resolved. Chart 2200 provides an exampleof risk decaying over time.

There is not information about the decay if focus is, put on the twostates of a threat “open” and “closed”. An analyst will have noexpectation on how long a threat is going to last until suddenly thescore goes down. But with risk decay, the score goes down graduallyaccording to the expiry time predicted by a machine learning modeldeveloped on the historical data and thus the analyst has an idea of howlong the risk is expected to last.

In chart 2200, three threat risk scores 2202-2206 are shown where a riskscore is decayed over time. The threats are the same as the threat riskscores 2102-2106 of chart 2100 but the risk is decayed with a decaymodel. The threats 2202 and 2204 are decayed with a polynomial decaymodel while the threat 2206 is decayed with an exponential risk model.The different threats can be decayed with different models based on acombination of the particular asset and/or the particular threat. Sincethe threat risk scores 2202-2206 are decayed over time, the asset sumrisk 2212, which is a summation of all risk scores, is shown to also bedecayed while the asset peak risk score 2210, which is the highestcurrent decayed risk, is also decayed since it is based on the decayedrisk scores 2202-2206. The baseline 2208 is shown to be the same as thebaseline 2110 since the baselines can be determined based on the rawrisk values, not the decayed risk values. In some embodiments, thebaseline risk score is based on the decayed risk values.

Referring now to FIG. 23-24, a chart 2300 of an exponential risk decaymodel and a chart 2400 of a polynomial risk decay model are shown,according to an exemplary embodiment. There are different types of riskdecay models to apply to the dynamic risk (polynomial, exponential,linear, etc.). Two useful decay functions for the risk decay model,ρ(t), are shown in the FIGS. 23-24.

The two proposed decay functions of FIGS. 23-24 both provide the gradualdecay operation with different properties. The exponential decayfunction, shown in FIG. 23, has a very fast decay at the beginning butthen becomes slow at the end of the curve. This type of decay functionis appropriate for representing the cases that has a sudden impact andexpires fast but it lingers for some time because of the possibleconsequences on peoples and public view. For example a bomb threat canbe a high risk but it quickly decays because they find out it was afalse alarm however, the police remains vigilant and ask public to beaware until the risk is completely gone away. The exponential decay isaggressive (more than 80% of the risk will be eliminated half way thruthe life span of that threat in exponential decay) and should be appliedonly in cases that has a good justification.

The polynomial decay function, as shown in FIG. 24, has a slow decay atthe beginning of the curve but close to the end of the curve it becomesa faster decay. This model which is suitable for the majority of thethreats provide a better transition since it preserves the impact of thethreat for the most part of the predicted active period. A minoraccident for example needs to stay active and decay slow until policeshows up, and deals with the situation. Then the traffic goes to normalvery quickly. Polynomial decay function can be very useful in thosescenarios.

The polynomial decay function parameters can be determined from Theorem1.

Theorem 1 (Polynomial Risk Decay Function)

Given a quartic function with a degree-4 polynomial for the decay model,

ƒ(x)=α₄ x ⁴+α₃ x ³α₂ x ²+αa₁ x+α ₀

the polynomial coefficients for a quarterly interpolation points of [1,0.95, 0.80, 0.60, 0.05] can be uniquely calculated as,

α₀=1

α₁=0.4167α⁻¹

α₂=−3.767α⁻²

α₃=6.133α⁻³

α₄=−3.73α⁻⁴

where α is a positive real number representing the expected expiry timeof the threat in minutes.

Proof

Applying the interpolation points {(0, 1), (0.25α, 0.95), (0.5α, 0.8),(0.75α, 0.6), (α, 0.05)} to the equation ƒ(x)=a₄x⁴+a₃x³+a₂x²+a₁x+a₀leads to the linear system of equations below,

a ₁(0.25a)+a ₂(0.25a)² +a ₃(0.25a)³ +a ₄(0.25a)⁴=−0.05

a ₁(0.5a)+a ₂(0.5a)² +a ₃(0.5a)³ +a ₄(0.5a)⁴=−0.2

a ₁(0.75a)+a ₂(0.75a)² +a ₃(0.75a)³ +a ₄(0.75a)⁴=−0.4

a ₁ a+a ₂ a ² +a ₃ a ³ +a ₄ a ⁴=−0.95

a₀=1

Using the Cramer's Rule, as described in greater detail in I. Reiner,Introduction to matrix theory and linear algebra, Holt, Rinehart andWinston, 1971,

$a_{1} = {\frac{\begin{matrix}{- 0.05`} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{- 0.2} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{- 0.4} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\{- 0.95} & a^{2} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}}{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & a^{2} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}} = {0.4167\; \alpha^{- 1}}}$$a_{2} = {\frac{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & {- 0.95} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & {- 0.2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & {- 0.4} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & {- 0.95} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}}{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & a^{2} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}} = {{- 3.767}\; \alpha^{- 1}}}$$a_{3} = {\frac{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & {- 0.05`} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & {- 0.2} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & {- 0.4} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & a^{2} & {- 0.95} & a^{4}\end{matrix}}{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & a^{2} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}} = {{- 6.133}\; \alpha^{- 1}}}$$a_{4} = {\frac{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & {- 0.05`} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & {- 0.2} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & {- 0.4} \\a & a^{2} & a^{3} & {- 0.95}\end{matrix}}{\begin{matrix}{0.25a} & ( {0.25a} )^{2} & ( {0.25a} )^{3} & ( {0.25a} )^{4} \\{0.5a} & ( {0.5a} )^{2} & ( {0.5a} )^{3} & ( {0.5a} )^{4} \\{0.75a} & ( {0.75a} )^{2} & ( {0.75a} )^{3} & ( {0.75a} )^{4} \\a & a^{2} & a^{3} & a^{4}\end{matrix}} = {{- 3.73}\; \alpha^{- 1}}}$

where |M| denotes the determinant of matrix M.

Referring generally to FIGS. 25-29, interfaces that the monitoringclient 128 can be configured to generate and cause the user devices 108to display and or receive interface interactions from are shownaccording to various exemplary embodiments. The interfaces of FIGS.25-29 can provide alarm handling integrated with risk scores, assetinformation, and/or threat information. Security operations ofteninvolve dealing with a high volume of alarms generated from cameras,sensory devices, controllers, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, fire &security system, badge in/out reports and door forced open incidents andso on. Handling alarms in such a large volume requires assigningsignificant resources to monitor the alarms and make the appropriatedecision to take actions based on the current situation. Prioritizingalarms, providing contextual information about assets and the threatsinvolved and filtering/sorting alarms are very important to reduce thetime and improve the user experience on the alarm monitor. Theinterfaces of FIGS. 25-29 provide integrated risk and threat analysisinto a single user interface and/or user interface system.

Referring now to FIGS. 25-27, interfaces are shown with risk score andactive threats as contextual information for responding to incidents,according to an exemplary embodment. In FIG. 25, a risk card 2502 isshown, the risk card illustrates both dynamic and baseline risk for anasset. The risk card 2502 is described in greater detail in FIG. 27.Interface element 2504 is shown to provide information regarding aparticular threat received from one of the data sources 102 and that therisk analytics system 106 standardizes. The element 2504 provides anindication of the threat (“Active Shooter”) a threat category (“Security& Crime”), a brief explanation of the threat (can be the raw summarytext received from the data sources 102 and used to perform NLP on anindication of the data source itself (“DataMinr”), an indication of thedistance away from a particular asset (“3 miles away”) and an indicationof the assets affected by the threat (i.e., number of buildings and/oremployees affected by the threat). The element 2504 allows a user toview the type of building affected by the threat; in element 2504 thebuilding affected by the threat is a retail building. Finally, the usersthat are logged into the monitoring client 128 that have viewed theelement 2504 are recorded and provided as part of the element 2504. Inthis regard, a building operator can quickly gain an understanding ofwhat building personal are aware of a particular threat and can morequickly respond to a threat since the, operator may not need to notify abuilding person who has already seen the threat.

Element 2506 of the interface 2500 provides information pertaining tothe asset affected by the threat described in the element 2504. Theasset affected by the threat in this example is a retail building. Theretail building is shown on a map interface along with a distance of thebuilding from the threat, a name of the building, and an address of thebuilding. The map illustrates both the location of the threat and thelocation of the building. Furthermore, a navigation route from thebuilding of the threat is provided.

In FIG. 26, an interface 2600 provides in for another threat andinformation for an asset affected by the threat Interface 2600 is shownto include threat details 2606. The details 2606 indicate a type ofthreat, in this case a “Foil Break Alarm,” an indication of a buildingname, an indication of a building type, the equipment which picked upthe threat, an alarm source, an alarm identifier, a time that the alarmwas triggered, and a time that the risk analytics system 106 receivedthe alarm.

Element 2602 provides a dynamic risk score for the building affected bythe threat, an indication of a number of threats currently affecting thebuilding, and an element to view additional details regarding thebuilding. Element 2608 provides a floor plan indication of the buildingaffected by the threat of element 2606. The user can view each of thefloors of the building and view, on the floor plan map, where the threatis occurring within the building. The element 2604 provides anindication of a dynamic risk score for the building an a tabulation ofeach of the threats affecting the building, for example, if anotherthreat is affecting the building outside of the “Foil Break Alarm,” anactive shooter threat, the active shooter threat and/or the foil breakalarm can be shown in the element 2604 along with an indication of therisk score value for the particular threat. Element 2610 provides anindication of security camera feeds associated with the building at aparticular location associated with the location of the threat occurringwithin the building. For example, the monitoring client 128 can beconfigured to identify, based on equipment reporting the foil breakalarm, what camera in the building views the equipment and or spaceassociated with the equipment. En this regard, a user can view a livestream and/or a historical video stream (associated with the time atwhich the threat was triggered) to review the threat.

In FIG. 27, the risk card 2502 is shown in greater detail. The risk card2502 includes an indication of a baseline risk values and an associatedthreat category, i.e., elements 2704 and 2700. For example, a particularasset can have multiple base risks, one baseline risk for crime andanother baseline risk for natural disasters. A dynamic risk 2702 isfurther shown indicating the highest risk score reported for the asset.Element 2706 provides an indication of whether the risk score has beenrising and/or falling for a predefined time period. The monitoringclient 128 can be configured to determine whether the risk score hasrisen and/or fallen over a predefined time period and can provide therisk card 2502 with an indication of the amount that the risk score hasrisen or fallen. If the risk score is rising the monitoring client 128can cause the risk card 2502 to provide an up arrow while if the riskscore is falling the monitoring client 128 can provide a down arrow. Theuser can interact with a risk details element 2708. In response todetecting a user interacting with the risk details element 2708, themonitoring client 128 can cause information pertaining to a risk (allthreats reported for the asset, the highest risk threat, etc.) to bedisplayed.

The risk card 2502 includes the most critical information but in aconcise and brief manner. The risk card 2502 includes the dynamic risk,score which corresponds to the current risk score from real time activethreats. Then it also includes baseline risk score which shows the riskscore over an extended period of time. Combination of these two togethermakes it a meaningful insight. Neither of them alone may be enough.Considering a location such as Miami, the risk of Tornado is higher inMiami as compared to Milwaukee but if one looks into the dynamic riskscore which comes from the active threats reflecting what is happening“right now” that might not even show any difference because tornados donot happen any minute. However, if one looks into base risk score whichhas been calculated over 50 years of data then one would see that thereis a noticeable difference in those scores between those cities.

On the other hand dynamic risk score is beneficial for situationalawareness to understand what threats are active at the moment and whichone has the highest risk. So the risk card shows both base and dynamicrisk score. It also shows the slope (rise or fall) on the last hour fordynamic risk to show where it's headed.

The risk card 2502 includes two categories for base risk score: Crimeand Natural disaster. Those are the two main categories that many userscare about according, to some studies. The baseline risk scores forcrime and natural disaster when combined might convey wrong information.In this regard, baseline risk scores can be determined for particularcategories so that a user can compare a dynamic risk score for crime tothe baseline for crime and a dynamic risk score for natural disasters tothe baseline for natural disasters.

Other than the risk card, an “alarm details” page can be viewed inresponse to interacting with the element 2708 which shows the moredetailed info on that alarm or threat. In that page, additionalinformation on the risk score is provided as well for example thedistance of the threat and also the details of the asset that wasimpacted. In the detailed information page one can also show the baserisk score at the sub-category level. For example if risk score is shownto be high for natural disaster at the risk card level, the interfacecan specify which sub-category e.g. earthquake, tornado snow fall andetc. on the detailed page.

Referring now to FIGS. 28-29, interfaces 2800 and 2900 are shownincluding a list of active threats for an asset listed along with therisk associated for each threat. The higher the risk score the moreimportant that threat is. In this regard, the monitoring client 128 candynamically prioritize alarms, i.e., threats, based on a risk scoreassociated with the asset affected by the threat. The monitoring client128 can be configured to dynamically sort the threats of the list 2802and 2902 so that the highest risk scores are shown on the top of thelist, allowing a user to quickly identify what threats and/or assets areassociated with the highest priority. As can be seen in interfaces2800-2900, as new threats are reported, and risk scores change, threatscan move up and down the list, as can be seen from list 2802 to 2902.

Existing solutions may prioritize events and alarms by adding “severity”metadata fields to the monitored data. These severity fields are usuallyconfigured by the site-monitoring devices themselves. One disadvantageof these methods is the severity data's lack of situational context. Forexample, two identical “glass break” events in two different buildingsmay have different actual priorities if one of the buildings is near acivil demonstration. Similarly, the same category of asset threat wouldhave a different actual impact on buildings of greater value, or where asenior executive, or a known offender, is present. In current solutions,such events are likely to be given equal priority without furtherinvestigation, adding potential cost and delay to the incidentmanagement process. An automated, more richly contextualized riskanalysis of threat data facilitates a more timely and accurateprioritization of asset threats.

As another example, a broken window in a building could trigger a breakglass alarm event. The risk score for the building asset would beincreased in response to the event occurring. The risk score for thebuilding may not trigger any automated workflow (e.g., call the police).However, if there is an event in the vicinity of the building, e.g., anactive shooter, the building asset risk score could be elevated. Thebreak glass event risk score could be added to the already elevated riskscore to reflect the larger potential significance of the break glassevent occurring near the active shooter. This could cause an automatedworkflow to be triggered causing security personal to be contacted oraccess to specific areas:of the building to be restricted.

For an increase in the risk reported from social media on an specificasset, the priority of the alarm related to that, asset movies higher onthe monitoring client interfaces 2800-2900 because of the increasedrisk. This provides dynamic alarm prioritization in real-time versusstatically prioritizing alarms without including any signals on theincidents that happen in real time that leave a potential risk onassets.

The provided risk score can also be used to sort the alarms based on therisk score. The risk score can be dynamic risk score for the mostimportant alarm at that particular time or it can be the baseline riskscore to highlight the assets or neighborhoods that historically haveshown higher exposer to threats like crime or natural disasters.

Referring now to FIG. 30, an interface 3000 is shown providing a globalrisk dashboard to view dynamic risk history, threat, and assetinformation interactively, according to an exemplary embodiment Theinterface 3000 can be generated by the risk dashboard 130 to provide auser with information for assets and or threats on a global scale. Therisk dashboard 130 can provide a dedicated application to risk andthreat analysis across all assets associated with a particular entity orgroup of entities (e.g., a store chain, a particular chain owner, etc.).The risk dashboard 130 is a comprehensive tool for risk analysisutilizing most of the backend service developed for risk. The interface3000 can provide an overview of all assets and the major risk factorsfor each one, an analysis of threats by grouping them based on category,location and time frame. Furthermore, the interface 3000 can provide aview of historical values of dynamic risk. The interface can provide anindication of analysis of baseline risk scores for differentneighborhoods and assets including comparisons and root cause analysis.The interface 3000 can provide risk forecasting based on the historicaldata and can provide the capability to do, simulated scenarios formoving assets. The interface 3000 can use map view to quickly identifythe threats and their risk scores against assets and explore assets,their values and vulnerabilities interactively.

The implementation of the risk dashboard 130 can be different indifferent applications. The risk dashboard 430 allows a user to viewdynamic risk history, threats and asset information interactively. Asshown in the figure, the threats can be categorized and filteredinteractively to enable analyzing the risk globally across all assets.The threats can be filtered by asset category, threat severity, threattype, geographic region, etc. Furthermore, the risk dashboard 130 (orany other risk dashboard described herein) can display forecasted riskfor multiple future points in time based on multiple past threat values(e.g., for a particular asset). Risk scores can be forecasted viatimeseries forecasting techniques such as the techniques as described inU.S. patent application Ser. No. 14/717,593 filed May 20, 2015, theentirety of which is incorporated by reference herein.

Referring more particularly to interface 3000, interface 3000 is shownto include an element 3002. The element 3002 can provide an indicationof the most recent risk score for a particular asset for all assetsreported in the interface 3000. Element 3004 can show the value of therisk score, an identification of an asset, a location of the asset, andtime that the threat occurred that is affecting the, asset. The riskinformation shown in the element 3004 can be the information of thelast;risk score shown in the element 3002.

A counter 3006 is shown in the interface 1000. The counter 3006 cancount the number of threats that have been recorded for all assets on aglobal scale. An indication of a time at which the risk dashboard 130most recently updated the counter 3006 can be shown. In someembodiments, the total number of threats shown by the counter 3006 is anall-time count and/or for a particular period of time into the past. Theelement 3008 can show a count of threats by data source. In this regard,the risk dashboard 130 can record the number of threats reported byteach of the data sources 102 and display the indication in the element3008.

Element 3010 illustrates threats by geographic area on an interactivemap. The asset locations shown may correspond to important cities and/orcities where assets belonging to the entity and/or entities are located.The risk scores for the assets can be shown by different colors toindicate the level of risk of each city. For example, some cities mayhave more risk scores and/or higher level risk scores, therefore, thesecities can be assigned a different risk level and/or risk level color.

In element 3016, risk scores are shown over time. The risk scores canillustrate a trend for a particular asset, city, and/or a maximumreported risk score for multiple points of time. Element 3012 providesan indication of assets and the number of threats reported forparticular locations (e.g., cities, states, countries, continents,etc.). Element 3014 provides an indication of a number of threats percategory. The categories can be the same and/or similar to thecategories described with reference to FIG. 5. Finally, element 3018provides an indication of threats and the severity of the threats. Theindications of threat severities are shown in a pie chart where aparticular percentage of total reported threats have a severity levelwithin predefined amounts associated with an “Extreme” label while asecond percentage of total reported threats have a severity level withinother predefined amounts associated with a “Severe” label.

Referring now to FIG. 31, an interface 3100 is shown includingadditional information on dynamic and baseline risk for a particularasset. The interface 3100 is shown to include an element 3102. Theelement 3102 can provide an indication of dynamic risk 332, element3104, a trend of the dynamic risk trend. 3106, and a baseline risk 3108.Element 3102 provides an indication of dynamic risk and highlightedthreats impacting an asset. Risk dynamics can be studied by providingthe risk evolution in time and highlighting major incidents causing therisk to rise or fall. The trend 3106 provides an indication of the risklevels rising due to major events,

The risk decay and threat expiry can also be studied in detail using therisk dashboard capabilities (e.g., the threat expiration and risk decayas shown and described with reference to FIG. 22 and elsewhere herein).

Referring to FIG. 29 and FIG. 31, historical risk and their evolutionwhen threats are impacting the assets is shown. FIG. 29 particularlyshows risk dynamics with threat expiry and decay factors. It should beunderstood that the baseline risk is also impacted by the introductionof the threats. However, the impact is very small compared to thedynamic risk because baseline risk considers the historical data sosudden changes in the data do not move the chart that much. There is acertain weighting for the history rather than the latest samples.

Referring now to FIG. 32, interface 3200 is shown providing analysistools to study threats impacting the assets by grouping, sorting and/orforecasting, according to an exemplary embodiment. Interface 3200 isshown to include a regional risk element 3202. The risk element 3202 caninclude an indication of risk scores for particular geographic regions.The geographic regions themselves can be considered assets and thereforethe risk score for the geographic region can be determined in the samemanner as the risk scores are generated for other assets by the riskanalytics system 106. Furthermore, the geographic; risk scores can begenerated as a composite (e.g., the highest, average risk score, medianrisk score) for all threats, and assets located within the geographicregion.

interface 3200 is shown to include element 3204. Element 3204 includesan indication of a number of threats received from the data sources 102for each of the number of categories determines for the threats by therisk analytics system 106. The threat categories can be ordered in alist so that the categories with the highest number of threats is at thetop and the categories with the lowest number of threats is at thebottom. If a particular category has more than a first predefined numberof threats, the category can be shown in red text. If the number ofthreats for a category is between a second and the first number ofthreats (a range less than the number of threats for the red text), thethreats can be shown in yellow. If the number of threats are less thanand/or equal to the second number of threats, the threats can be shownin white. For example, for threat numbers are equal to and/or between 0and 5, the categories can be shown in white. For threats equal to and/orbetween 6 and 11, the threat categories can be shown in yellow. Forthreat numbers equal and/or more than 12, the categories can be shown inred.

Elements 3206 and 3208 illustrate two threats and the assets that theyeach affect. The elements 3206 and 3208 are ordered based on the levelof the, risk that each represents. The elements 3206 and 3208 can be thesame as and/or similar to the element 2504 as described with referenceto FIG. 25.

Referring now to FIG. 33, an interface 3300 is shown indicating the riskscore, the threats can be studied, by grouping and filtering certaincategories or locations, according to an exemplary embodiment. Interface3300 is shown to include comments by particular security operators inelement 3304. In this regard, if a new user logins into the riskdashboard 130, they can be presented with the interface 3300 showing thecomments Of a previous user that the new user may be replacing. Asecurity advisor can see the previous comments and pick up the workright from where others left off with all the information consolidated mone place. The interface 3300 further shows regional risk score inelement 3306. The element 3306 may be the same as and/or similar to theelement 3202 as described with reference to FIG. 2. Furthermore, the topthreats for various assets are shown in element 3302 of the interface3300.

Configuration of Exemplary Embodiments

The construction and arrangement of the systems and methods as shown mthe various exemplary embodiments are illustrative only. Although only afew embodiments have been described in detail in this disclosure, manymodifications are possible (e.g., variations in sizes, dimensions,structures, shapes and proportions of the various elements, values ofparameters, mounting arrangements, use of materials, colors,orientations, etc.). For example, the position of elements may bereversed or otherwise vaned and the nature or number of discreteelements or positions may be altered or varied. Accordingly, all suchmodifications are intended to be included within the scope of thepresent disclosure. The order or sequence of any process or method stepsmay be varied or re-sequenced according to alternative embodiments.Other substitutions, modifications changes, and omissions may be made inthe design, operating conditions and arrangement of the exemplaryembodiments without departing from the scope of the present disclosure.

The present disclosure contemplates methods, systems and programproducts on any machine-readable media for accomplishing variousoperations. The embodiments of the present disclosure may be implementedusing existing computer processors, or by a special purpose computerprocessor for an appropriate system, incorporated for this or anotherpurpose, or by a hardwired system. Embodiments within the scope of thepresent disclosure include program products comprising machine-readablemedia for carrying or having machine-executable instructions or datastructures stored thereon. Such machine-readable media can be anyavailable media that can be accessed by a general purpose or specialpurpose computer or other machine with a processor. By way of example,such machine-readable media can comprise RAM, ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, CD-ROMor other optical disk storage, magnetic disk storage or other magneticstorage devices, or any other medium which can be used to carry or storedesired program code in the form of machine-executable instructions, ordata structures and which can be, accessed by a general purpose orspecial purpose computer or other machine with a processor. Wheninformation is transferred or, provided over a network or anothercommunications connection (either hardwired, wireless, or a combinationof hardwired or wireless) to a machine, the machine properly views <theconnection as a machine-readable medium. Thus, any such connection isproperly termed a machine-readable medium. Combinations of the above arealso included within the scope of machine-readable media,Machine-executable instructions include, for example, instructions anddata which cause a general purpose computer, special purpose computer,or special purpose processing machines to perform a certain function orgroup of functions.

Although the figures show a specific order of method steps, the order ofthe steps may differ from what is depicted. Also two or more steps maybe performed concurrently or with partial concurrence. Such variationwill depend on the software and hardware systems chosen and on designer,choice. All such variations are within the scope of the disclosure.Likewise, software implementations could be accomplished with standardprogramming techniques with rule based logic and other logic toaccomplish the various connection steps, processing steps, comparisonsteps and decision steps.

In various implementations, the steps and operations described hereinmay be performed on one processor Or in a combination of two or moreprocessors. For example, in some implementations, the various operationscould be performed. In a central server or set of central serversconfigured to'receive data from one or more devices (e.g., edgecomputing devices/controllers) and perform the operations. In someimplementations, the operations may be performed by one or more localcontrollers or computing devices (e.g., edge devices), such ascontrollers dedicated to and/or located within a particular building orportion of a building. In some implementations, the operations may beperformed by a combination of one or more central or offsite computingdevices servers and one or more local controllers/computing devices. Allsuch implementations are contemplated within the scope of the presentdisclosure. Further, unless otherwise indicated, when the presentdisclosure refers to one or more computer-readable storage media and/orone or more controllers, such computer-readable storage media and/or oneor more controllers may be implemented as one or more central servers,one or more local controllers or computing devices (e.g., edge devices),any combination thereof, or any other combination of storage mediaand/or controllers regardless of the location of such devices.

What is claimed is:
 1. A building management system comprising: one ormore computer-readable storage media having instructions stored thereonthat, when executed by one or more processors, cause the one or moreprocessors to: receive a threat, the threat comprising a particularthreat type, the threat indicating an incident affecting a risk valueassociated with an asset; determine, based on the threat and the asset,the risk value at a first point in time; select a decay model based onthe particular threat type; and update the risk value at a plurality ofpoints in time after the first point in time with the decay modelcausing the risk value to decay.
 2. The building management system ofclaim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to:generate a list comprising a plurality of threats and the threat, eachof the plurality of threats associated with a particular asset and thethreat associated with the asset; sort the list based on the risk valueand a plurality of other risk values to, list the threats in order ofhighest risk score to lowest risk score, each of the plurality of otherrisk values associated with one of the plurality of threats andassociated with one of the plurality of assets; and update the sortedlist as the risk value decays to list the threats in order of thehighest risk score to the lowest risk score.
 3. The building managementsystem of claim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to execute the instructions to select the decay model basedon the particular threat type and further based on the asset.
 4. Thebuilding management system of claim 1, wherein the instructions causethe one or more processors to select the decay model based on theparticular threat type by selecting the decay model from at least one ofa polynomial decay model, an exponential decay model, or a linear decaymode.
 5. The building management system of claim 1, wherein theinstructions cause the one or more processors to: publish the risk scoreat each of the plurality of points in time to a risk score topic; readthe risk score topic to retrieve the risk score at each of the pluralityof points in time; and cause a user interface to display an indicationof the risk score at each of the plurality of points in time based onthe read of the risk score topic.
 6. The building management system ofclaim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to:receive a plurality of threats, each of the plurality of threatscomprising a particular threat type, each of the plurality of threatsindicating an incident affecting a risk value associated with an asset:determine, based on the plurality of threats and the asset, a pluralityof risk values at a first point in time, each risk value associated withthe asset and one of the plurality of threats select a decay model foreach of the plurality of threats based on the threat type of each of theplurality of threats; update each of the risk values at a plurality ofpoints in time after the first point in time with the decay modelsselected for each of the plurality of threats; and determine the riskvalue at each of the plurality of points M time associated with theasset by selecting a highest risk value from the plurality of riskvalues at each of the plurality of points in time.
 7. The buildingmanagement system of claim 1, wherein the instructions cause the one ormore processors to determine, based on the type of the particularthreat, an expiration time, wherein the expiration time indicates thelength of time that the threat will affect the risk value associatedwith the asset; wherein the instructions cause the one or moreprocessors to update the risk value at the plurality of points in timeafter the first point in time with the decay model and the expirationtime causing the risk value to decay to a particular value at an end ofthe expiration time.
 8. The building management system of claim 7,wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to update therisk value at the plurality of points in time after the first point intime with the decay model and the expiration time by: determining, at asecond point in time of the plurality of points in time after the firstpoint in time, a decay factor based on the expiration time and the decaymodel; and determining the risk value at the second point in time bymultiplying the risk value at the first point in time by the decayfactor.
 9. The building management system of claim 8, wherein theinstructions cause the one or more processors to: store the threat, theexpiration time, and the decay model in, the one or morecomputer-readable storage media; and at each of the plurality of pointsin time: retrieve the threat, the expiration time, and the decay modelfrom the one or more computer-readable storage media; determine, whetherthe threat has expired by determining whether the expiration time haspassed; determine the decay factor based on the expiration time and thedecay model in response to a determination that the threat has notexpired; and determine the risk value by multiplying the risk value at aprevious point in time with the decay model to determine the risk valueat a current point in time.
 10. The building management system of claim9, wherein the instructions cause the one or more processors to: store athreat status for the threat in the one or more computer-readablestorage media, wherein the stored threat status is an active threatstatus indicating that the expiration time has not passed; retrieve, ateach of the plurality of points in time, the threat status; and updatethe threat status stored in the one or more computer-readable storagemedia to dosed in response to a determination that the expiration timehas passed.
 11. A method fear risk analysis, the method comprising:receiving a threat, the threat comprising a particular threat type, thethreat indicating an incident affecting a risk value associated with anasset; determining, based on the threat and the asset, the risk value ata first point in time; selecting a decay model based on the particularthreat type; and updating the risk value at a plurality of points intime after the first point in time with the decay model causing the riskvalue to decay.
 12. The method of claim 11, further comprising:generating a list comprising a plurality of threats and the threat, eachof the plurality of threats associated with a particular asset and thethreat associated with the asset; sorting the list based on the riskvalue and a plurality of other risk values to list the threats in orderof highest risk score to lowest risk score, each of the plurality ofother risk values associated with one of the plurality of threats andassociated with one of the plurality of assets; and updating the sortedlist as the risk value decays to list the threats in order of thehighest risk score to the lowest risk score.
 13. The method of claim 11,wherein determining, based on the threat and the asset, the risk valueat a first point in time is based on: a vulnerability parameterassociated with the asset; an asset cost parameter associated with theasset; a severity associated with the threat; and a geographic distancebetween the asset and the threat.
 14. The method of claim 11, furthercorn selecting the decay model based on the particular threat type byselecting the decay model from at least one of a polynomial decay model,an exponential decay model, or a linear decay mode.
 15. The method ofclaim 11, further comprising: publishing the risk score at each of theplurality of points in time to a risk score topic; reading the riskscore topic to retrieve the risk score at each of the plurality ofpoints in time; and causing a user interface to display an indication ofthe risk score at each of the plurality of points in tune based on theread of the risk score topic.
 16. The method of claim 11, furthercomprising: receiving a plurality of threats, each of the plurality ofthreats comprising a particular threat type, each of the plurality ofthreats indicating ail incident affecting a risk value associated withan asset; determining, based on the plurality of threats and the asset,a plurality of risk values at a first point in time, each risk valueassociated with the asset and one of the plurality of threats; selectinga decay model for each of the plurality of threats based on the threattype of each of the plurality of threats; updating each of the riskvalues at a plurality of points in time after the first point in timewith die decay models selected for each of the plurality of threats; anddetermining the risk value at each of the plurality of points in timeassociated with the asset by selecting a highest risk value from theplurality of risk values at each of the plurality of points in time. 17.The method of claim 11, further comprising determining, based on thetype of the particular threat, an expiration time, wherein theexpiration time indicates the length of time that the threat will affectthe risk value associated with the asset; wherein updating the riskvalue at the plurality of points in time after the first point in timecomprises updating the risk value with the decay model and theexpiration time causing the risk value to decay to a particular value atan end of the expiration time.
 18. The method of claim 17, furthercomprising updating the risk value at the plurality of points in timeafter the first point in time with the decay model and the expirationtime by: determining, at a second point in time of the plurality ofpoints in time after the first point in time, a decay factor based onthe expiration time and the decay model; and determining the risk valueat the second point in time by multiplying the risk value at the firstpoint in time by the decay factor.
 19. The method of claim 18, furthercomprising: storing the threat, the expiration time, and the decay modelin one or more computer-readable storage media: and at each of theplurality of points in time: retrieving the threat, the expiration time,and the decay model from the one or more computer-readable storagemedia; determining, whether the threat has expired by determiningwhether the expiration time has passed; determining the decay factorbased on the expiration time and the decay model in response to adetermination that the threat has not expired; and determining the riskvalue by multiplying the risk value at a previous point in time with thedecay model to determine the risk value at a current point in time. 20.A risk analytics system comprising: one or more computer-readablestorage media communicably coupled to one or more processors andconfigured to store instructions; and the one or more processorsconfigured to execute the instructions to: receive a threat, the threatcomprising a particular threat type, the threat indicating an incidentaffecting a risk value associated with an asset; determine, based on thethreat and the asset, the risk value at a fast point in time; select adecay model based on the particular threat type; and update the riskvalue at a plurality of points in time after the first point in time,with the decay model causing the risk value to decay.